‘In a matter of minutes I’ve apparently resigned from the Nationals, which I haven’t actually done yet, joined One Nation, which I haven’t actually done, and then within a few hours I’m actually leading One Nation… I even watched on television last night people complaining about my leadership of a party I’m not even a member of…’
Thank god Barnaby Joyce has the good humour to be amused by Australia’s rabid news cycle of click-bait desperate mastheads trying to sow the seeds of discontent!
Late last week, the disgruntled Nationals MP fell victim to a little old school leaking.
‘It wasn’t someone who likes me. It’s someone who doesn’t want to help me much, and they’ve done an excellent job on that account,’ Joyce said, of the news which forced him to prematurely clarify his future in the Nationals.
Barnaby Joyce is a Litmus test for the Coalition. If they lose him, a former Deputy Prime Minister, then it says something indisputable about the soul of the alliance.
It would also mean the Coalition split earlier in the year was not merely a wobble.
Both the Liberals and Nationals are embroiled in a custody battle over Net Zero and it looks as though anyone who thinks economic and environmental suicide is a bad idea will be pushed out of the broad church and into Pauline Hanson’s warm embrace.
To be clear, Barnaby Joyce has not quit the Nationals, nor is he likely to. He has a strong sense of moral responsibility and will probably honour his promise to the people of New England and finish his term.
What happens after, well, that is where the question marks start.
He will not recontest New England for the Nationals. That is all we know.
Barnaby Joyce had a health scare earlier in the year, and some say he may retire to be with his young family. David Littleproud casually slipped that messaging into his, oh god, please don’t leave us! speech, which doesn’t sit right given Joyce’s quip about so-called generational change trotted out as a polite way of saying something nastier.
‘If you were my partner,’ said Barnaby this morning, ‘and you came home one night and said, “For reasons of generational change, I don’t think this relationship’s going well…” You’d think that was pretty much it.
‘And if they said we don’t want you to go out and campaign anywhere, that’s like saying, “I don’t want you to go to any parties with me or be seen in public with me.” You’d probably say I don’t think this relationship is going that well.
‘I’m not going to throw the plates. I understand that’s how the world works, and we all move on.’
There’s a bit of cake-eating going on here where the puppet masters drag out the ghosts of better times (Menzies, Howard, Abbott) to distract voters with nostalgia, while doing everything possible to get rid of the strong, charismatic, battle-hardened victors whose presence is holding the modern mess together.
When Barnaby Joyce and his peers leave, the modern personalities of the party will discover how inconsequential they really are.
‘I don’t have a view on whatever circus is going on in the National Party…’
If not retirement, then what?
Barnaby Joyce may defect to One Nation, a party polling as high as 14 per cent, and take a lead spot on the Senate ticket. While not a sure bet, it’s certainly a safe one given the shenanigans going on with local branches.
The slightly absurd interpretation of these events led to an overreaching headline in the Australian Financial Review, Barnaby Joyce to succeed Pauline Hanson as One Nation leader.
Barnaby Joyce has declared he will quit the Nationals – a party he once led – clearing the way for a shift to One Nation and to eventually succeed Pauline Hanson as leader.
This is known as poisoning the well.
It introduces the fear that Joyce is a threat rather than an asset… Neither of the personalities involved are naïve enough to bend to this entry-level undermining. Advertising Joyce as Pauline Hanson’s successor is woefully premature and Joyce cut the comments down this morning.
‘I did ring [Pauline Hanson] last night because seeing they are talking about us, we may as well speak to each other rather than through the media … there was nothing locked in, nothing … let’s take it down a step. I have not joined One Nation.’
Everyone knows Barnaby Joyce is a blue ribbon conservative with nothing to prove.
He’s a tame Katter who walks right up to oblivion, touches the abyss with his toe, and then nudges the nearest Labor politician into the void.
If he were to defect to One Nation, it would not be with an ambition to replace Senator Hanson.
‘Would you welcome him with open arms?’ a journalist asked Senator Hanson.
‘Of course I would. No problems. I made it quite clear last year that I was talking to Barnaby about it, but he stuck with the Nats.’
One Nation is wearing the same grin as Nigel Farage where conservatives are knocking on their door as the old parties list over to the Left and start taking on the waters of socialism.
Respectable members with long legacies are a net benefit to One Nation.
Having Barnaby Joyce arm-in-arm with Pauline Hanson on the campaign trail is high up on the list of apocalyptic scenarios for the Coalition. The only way it could be worse is if Jacinta Nampijinpa Price joined in.
‘We want him to stay in the Nationals Party,’ said Littleproud, meekly.
He then ruined the potential vote of any half-curious Nationals listeners when he added, ‘We’ve got some big decisions to make … around things like Net Zero. How we address those sort of challenges and have a practical solution and not just be part of a protest party. The Nationals are a party of government.’
Yes, that is true. As former Speaker of the House, Bronwyn Bishop pointed out on The World According to Rowan Dean on Friday, a feature of compulsory preferential voting is the entrenchment of a two-party struggle for government.
Not everyone agrees this is a good thing.
For once, it is not a personality conflict pushing the Coalition apart, it is a policy. Net Zero is a line in the sand. The vanity of city Liberal voters is endangering the survival of rural Nationals voters.
The critical part of this story is that the city Liberals are wrong. Net Zero is not popular and whatever election traction they imagined it had amongst the Teals, this is collapsing worldwide.
Essentially, the Liberals are destroying the Coalition for an idea on its death bed.
‘I think it’s just a matter of time,’ said Craig Kelly, on whether or not Barnaby Joyce will defect from the Nationals and join One Nation. ‘There was talk about this happening at the last election.’
At the end of the day, it is not the opinion of the press that matters, but rather that of the voters.
What do you think?
Flat White is written by Alexandra Marshall. If you would like to support her work, shout her a coffee over at donor-box.
