With Labour 20 points ahead in the national polls, a lot of Tories have already written off next month’s mayoral contest in the capital. London, they maintain, is a Labour city that occasionally votes Conservative. But supporters of Sadiq Khan and his Tory challenger Susan Hall agree: it’s going to be closer than many think.

The mayor’s image is as likely to be found on Conservative
leaflets as on Labour ones

Three factors are held by both camps to be at play. The first is the incumbency factor versus ‘time for a change’. Khan’s re-election team has consulted other campaigns which won three in a row; all agreed this was the hardest contest to win. A hat-trick eluded Ken Livingstone, who lost in 2008 despite nearly a decade of prosperity for the city.

Khan boasts a less impressive record. Half the capital’s residents say in polls that he has performed ‘badly’ or ‘very badly’ on knife crime, gangs and homelessness since 2016. One pollster tips him to underperform his party by up to ten points. ‘In these times,’ remarks one GLA candidate, ‘the only incumbent certain of re-election is Mr Putin.’

This leads to the second reason: an expected rise in split-ticket voting, with many Londoners backing the Tories in May before switching to Labour later this year. One Tory candidate tells of a typical doorstep encounter. ‘I’m going to smash your party at the general,’ said the voter. ‘But I’ll back you in the mayoral to get that man out.’

The Mayor’s image is as likely to be found on Conservative leaflets as Labour, with some in Khan’s own party choosing to airbrush him from their messaging. In Wimbledon, the Hall campaign was met by one voter furiously tearing up one of their leaflets because they saw Khan’s face on it, only to realise, belatedly, it was from the Tories.

Campaigners report continued anger with the expansion of the Ultra Low Emission Zone. ‘Cab drivers used to complain about their wives and girlfriends,’ remarks one. ‘Now they moan about Sadiq Khan.’ Much as Mrs Thatcher was dubbed TBW – ‘that bloody woman’ – by her third election campaign, so too is Khan often now referred to as ‘that man’ on certain London doorsteps.

Low turnout is the third factor making this election competitive. The five previous mayoral contests in London have seen turnout range from 34 to 42 per cent. A figure towards the lower end of this range is expected to favour Hall, given the strength of feeling from anti-Khan voters. He enjoys a large but passive and unenthusiastic potential vote share while Hall’s potential vote is smaller but more likely to turn out. ‘If it’s less than 35 per cent, Susan wins,’ says one Tory Assembly candidate. ‘If Khan gets more than that, he does.’

Added to the mix are a series of electoral novelties: mandatory voter ID, restrictions on postal votes, and the voting system changed from the traditional two-round first-preference system to a straight one-off vote.

Both candidates have an interest in presenting the contest as a two-horse race, as Khan illustrated literally with a Barnet stables photoshoot. Khan’s campaign – socially liberal, environmentally progressive, unabashedly Europhile – is aimed squarely at convincing the 15 per cent of Londoners tempted to vote Liberal Democrat or Green.

Rob Blackie, the Lib Dem candidate, who has earned the nickname ‘bionic man’ for his titanium neck (installed after he was violently mugged), has struggled to shift the dynamics of the contest. Labour are thus turning their attention to the yellow stronghold of south-west London, in places such as Richmond and Kingston. ‘They don’t have an insurance policy any more,’ says one Khan ally. ‘That’s why we’re asking them to lend us their votes.’

The Greens, who have finished third in the last three contests, and their pink-haired candidate Zoë Garbett are likely to be less pliable. ‘The Green growth is going to be the big thing,’ predicts one rival candidate in Islington. But an early call for a Gaza ceasefire and the absence of a Corbyn-style independent candidate means, in the words of polling expert Lord Hayward, ‘Khan is likely to avoid a Muslim backlash’.

Hall, by contrast, is focusing on the Londoners perceived to have been ignored by Khan: older voters, the more socially conservative and the self-employed. Many of these comprise the 1.5 million city residents who, like Hall, backed Leave in 2016.

Hall aims to meet 100,000 voters in person by polling day. In her office proudly stands a map of the capital, marked off with pins after every visit. Some Tories fear her time is being wasted trying to convince individual voters on the doorstep. But ‘“Listening to Londoners” is a very good use of your time,’ retorts one supporter. ‘It’s exactly what Sadiq Khan hasn’t done.’ Ads bearing this message on a pro-Hall Facebook page have been seen 3.5 million times since February.

Between 20 to 30 staff are working on Hall’s campaign, run from CCHQ in Westminster. Her team wants to deliver three million leaflets by 2 May, with some of their best feedback coming from traditional Labour-voting council estates. Conversely, wealthier areas such as Kensington can be more challenging. One Assembly candidate was greeted outside a £5 million house in Camden by a woman throwing a shoe at her head.

Overshadowing the mayoral race is the general election: this is the first time both contests have fallen in the same year. Keen to keep up his winning record, Keir Starmer and his aides have worked to patch up relations with Khan after what one aide concedes was ‘a difficult summer’. On the ground, activists in various parties report squabbles between GLA candidates and MPs fighting for leaflet space and canvassing sessions. ‘It is a little bit brutal out there,’ says one.

The results will yield invaluable insights for party strategists in national headquarters. The Tories will look nervously at the Essex border where they worry Brexit voters may be abandoning the party. For Labour, it will be a test as to whether the fears of voter ID really do impact their base. As for Reform, with its candidate Howard Cox, this unpromising territory offers a chance to see whether their polling translates into actual votes.

Far from being a write-off, then, the mayoral contest could be the more interesting of the two elections fought this year – and potentially more competitive, too.