Maybe I’m becoming a grumpy old woman – OK, I’m already a grumpy old woman – but I am getting increasingly fed up by the endless discussion of things that just ain’t going to happen. Why bother, me thinks, unless the instigator of the discussion wants to show off. But aren’t there enough pompous gits in the world already? Obviously, I notice these things when they are close to my professional world of Australian economic policy, but examples abound across the board – think here the ‘two-state solution’. I’m not against a bit of arm-waving from time to time, but really?

Let me give you some examples of what I’m talking about. There is an interminable conversation about how the GST should be altered. It should be 15 per cent, not 10 per cent. It should include fresh food, health, education and financial services. If other countries can have a higher GST – examples include UK, New Zealand, Europe – surely Australia can prosper with a higher GST, or so the argument goes.

I have to tip my hat to Peter Costello, who as Treasurer was responsible for bringing in the GST in the first place. Let’s not forget that the GST replaced some very nasty, inefficient state imposts as well as paving the way for lower income taxes across-the-board. This is what real tax reform looks like.

But Costello also did something equally clever: he made it almost impossible to increase the rate of the GST or to change its coverage. By directing all the GST revenue back to the states, he made unanimous consensus a requirement for any change. It also means the Commonwealth would bear all the political pain of raising the rate or extending the coverage but get none of the additional revenue.

Let’s face it, changes to the GST ain’t going to happen, particularly in the context of the unresolved and divisive issue of the distribution of the GST revenue between the states.

Mind you, it’s a stretch to say that the special GST deal for Western Australia dreamt up by then Coalition finance minister, Mathias Cormann, is the worst public policy mistake of this century. It’s up there, but really?  (NDIS and Gonski funding immediately spring to mind as even worse.)

But here’s the problem, the guaranteed minimum proportion that the Sandgropers can receive – 70 per cent, rising to 75 per cent soon – means that any higher rate of GST would flow disproportionately to WA and the federal government would be forced to plug the gap for the other states. The current arrangements are estimated to cost close to $30 billion over the decade for this compensation; a higher GST or broader coverage would simply lift this figure.

While we are on things that ain’t going to happen, let me mention a national carbon tax. This doesn’t stop the economic boffins down at the Fin – I am being ironic here – from constantly banging on about the need for an across-the-board carbon tax to ensure that we can get to net zero by 2050 at least cost, or so the argument goes.

Julia Gillard led a government that wasn’t going to introduce a national carbon tax, but then actually introduced a national carbon tax, leading eventually to a cap-and-trade scheme in which the cap would be ratcheted down. (I love the fact that all the green crazies at the time were writing thousands of words on why the initial scheme wasn’t a carbon tax but a carbon price, only for Jools to tell us she was relaxed with the term ‘tax’. She wasn’t all bad, that woman and her ‘hyperbowl’.)

Of course, that national carbon tax lasted a nanosecond in political terms. Let’s not forget it was the Ruddster Mark II who dumped it as part of Labor policy, before Tony Abbott as prime minister killed it off through legislation. As far as the electorate is concerned, there’s not much difference between putrid tripe and a carbon tax.

(I should note that just because we don’t have a national carbon tax, we do actually have a multitude of sectoral shadow carbon taxes. The Renewable Energy Target is a form of carbon tax, the new New Vehicle Emissions Standard is a form of carbon tax, subsidies for rooftop solar panels are a form of carbon tax for those without panels and the list goes on.)

Staying with the green theme, another thing that ain’t going to happen is Australia becoming a renewable energy superpower or should that be RENEWABLE ENERGY SUPERPOWER! Of course, this doesn’t dissuade the Albanese government from continuing to go on about the endless possibilities of the new nirvana.

Move over fossil fuels, your days are coming to an end. You will be replaced by nickel, lithium, cobalt and other ‘green’ minerals.  The countryside will be covered by wind turbines and solar panels, possibly exporting electricity to Singapore via an implausibly expensive undersea cable. (Pause here for uncontrollable laughter.)

The Treasurer – Jimbo to Speccie readers – even put the term in the new Statement of Expectations for the Productivity Commission. The PC is specifically instructed to focus on ‘getting to net zero and becoming a renewable energy superpower’ as one of the five themes. And this is in the context of improving our productivity performance. (Pause again for more laughter.)

This is completely delusional. Our big commodity exports – iron ore, two types of coal, LNG – amount to around $350 billion per year. They net around $200bn and the taxes that are paid include royalties, company taxes and other imposts. These industries have taken literally decades to develop, based on assuming risk, large licks of investment and sheer hard work.

The idea that we can send all these commodities to any early grave and maintain any semblance of integrity for the federal budget is completely bonkers. And here’s the thing: there really is very little indication that the world – at least Asia – has any intention of cancelling their orders for the stuff. Demand for coal to fire electricity in Asia is as buoyant as it has ever been.

But somehow we are expected to believe that bunging in multiple wind turbines and industrial-scale solar panels and despoiling our rural landscapes will lead us to becoming a renewable energy superpower. And for anyone who has been following market developments in those ‘green’ minerals, the volatility in lithium and the near collapse of nickel should give the zealous advocates reason to rethink.

The nickel industry in Australia is about to shut up shop because the Indonesians have got on to the craze, with Chinese investment. Using coal-fired power stations and refining processes of dubious environmental impact, our northerly neighbours are cashing in, with most of the refined nickel heading to China. It will be used in the making of EV batteries, with cheap China-made EVs about to conquer the world. This is not working out well for the European carmakers, in particular.

Given that there’s so much that is actually happening or about to happen, it’s a complete waste of time to be talking about things that ain’t going to happen. That, of course, really rubs efficient economists up the wrong way – or should.