Just before the last general election, the Muslim Council of Britain released research which calculated how many seats could be decided by Muslim votes. The answer was 31, enough to swing a tight election. It’s debatable how many of these voters would realistically switch party: traditionally, Muslims have been more likely to back Labour than almost any other electoral group. But it’s the kind of statistic that could make Keir Starmer nervous.

In his quest to demonstrate that he has vanquished Corbynism, the Labour leader has been steadfast in his support for Israel, to the dismay of many within his own party. In November, he lost ten frontbenchers who protested Labour’s stance on Gaza. Others privately fear the loss of the Muslim vote. But Starmer has his eyes on different prizes: Red Wall and bellwether seats in suburbia. Voters in those areas want proof that Labour has changed and, in his defence of Israel, Starmer seeks to provide it. Anyway, where would disaffected Muslim voters go?

Many on the left are furious with Starmer – and Labour backbenchers feel the brunt of it

George Galloway is hoping to provide an answer to that question. The former Labour and Respect party MP is standing in this month’s Rochdale by-election, in an attempted plebiscite on Labour’s stance on Israel. ‘The people of Gaza don’t have a vote in this election,’ his leaflet begins, ‘You do.’ He offers a ‘straight choice between George who will fight for Palestine and the people of Rochdale – and Keir Starmer who will fight for Israel’. He also claims he ‘has the support of thousands of Palestinians in his bid to become Rochdale’s next MP’. Subtle it ain’t.

A Survation poll suggests that nationally, 60 per cent of Muslims still back Labour – down from 86 per cent, but still a solid vote. It’s difficult to think of many groups which are as resolutely pro-Tory. But the idea that millions of Muslim votes might be up for grabs has led to independent candidates popping up to challenge Labour across the country. A new grassroots group called the Muslim Vote is organising voter drives and door-knocking campaigns in eight constituencies. Its stated aim is to ‘reward’ MPs who voted for a ceasefire and to ‘punish’ those who did not.

Some see a repeat of the ‘Iraq effect’ when thousands of Muslims deserted Labour after the US-led invasion to topple Saddam Hussein. Its most powerful expression was when Galloway captured the Bethnal Green and Bow seat in 2005. Labour’s divisions are welcomed by some Tories as a chance to split the opposition vote and save their seats. The Conservatives have historically performed badly among Muslim voters, of whom one in ten voted blue in 2019. It means, crudely, in the words of one MP: ‘We have far fewer voters to lose.’

It has even been suggested that Labour could be outflanked by the Tories after Lord Cameron suggested last week that Britain should recognise a Palestinian state. ‘He’s been ahead of the curve on this,’ gushes one of Starmer’s MPs. ‘There are basically two Arabists left in the party,’ grumbles one pro-Israel Tory, referring to Cameron and his deputy Andrew Mitchell. ‘And they’re the ones running the Foreign Office.’

Yet any talk of a nationwide ‘Gaza’ election is wide of the mark. Starmer’s mammoth poll lead and the geographical distribution of Muslim voters across Britain mean the issue is unlikely to make a big difference in many seats. If today’s polls were tomorrow’s election result, Labour would have a 250-seat majority. The Middle East is unlikely to be a major factor in any more than half a dozen of those seats.

This is one reason why the Tories have not sought to draw great political capital around what one calls ‘an esoteric conflict miles away’. They see this issue as helpful only insofar as it torments Labour. ‘I suspect Mr Galloway will do our work for us in that regard,’ remarks one aide.

The more obvious danger for Labour is that the fallout over Starmer’s pro-Israel line has weakened his team and demoralised his troops. Shabana Mahmood, the shadow justice secretary, was perhaps the most familiar face in last year’s local election campaign. Yet Mahmood, Labour’s most high-ranking Muslim MP, has been virtually absent from the airwaves in the five months since the 7 October attacks. The same is true of Thangam Debbonaire, the shadow culture secretary. She is facing a tough re-election battle in Bristol Central, where the pro-ceasefire Greens are just four points behind Labour. Wes Streeting, the shadow health secretary, has had to contend with hundreds of protestors gathering outside his Ilford constituency office.

The conflict is also affecting Starmer’s backbenchers, who are less worried than he is about reprising Corbyn-era language. Kate Osamor, the MP for Edmonton, declared Gaza a ‘genocide’ in a Holocaust Memorial Day message. Andy McDonald (Middlesbrough) has been demanding justice ‘between the river and the sea’ while Tahir Ali (Birmingham Hall Green) accused Rishi Sunak of having ‘blood on his hands’.

The Labour whips suspended Osamor and McDonald and reprimanded Ali. To hear such language from Labour MPs is music to the ears of Conservatives, allowing them to say that the party has not really changed since the Corbyn years.

Many on the left are furious with Starmer, and Labour backbenchers often feel the brunt of that anger. When Starmer told LBC that Israel ‘has the right’ to withhold power and water from Gaza, his words were put on a poster used to attack Rushanara Ali in her east London constituency. Jo Stevens’s office in Cardiff was covered in posters accusing her of having ‘blood’ on her hands. Others have suffered death threats, some of which have gone unreported for fear of encouraging further attempts.

The unofficial refrain within senior Tory circles throughout the Gaza crisis has been that ‘foreign policy doesn’t win votes – but it can lose them’. Starmer is braced for that. The Labour leader’s bet is that, in the Rochdale by-election and in the general, he has enough votes to lose.