A former Tory minister likes to tell the tale of a recent charity dinner in his constituency. The organiser began by stressing that the occasion had to remain ‘a strictly non-political event’. The MP rose to reply: ‘Not to worry, ladies and gentlemen – I belong to a strictly non-political party.’

That question of Rishi Sunak’s political instincts – or lack thereof – is preoccupying Tory MPs. Three recent encounters are held up as examples. An ill-judged bet with Piers Morgan was followed by a warm embrace with the Sinn Fein First Minister Michelle O’Neill. Images of this latter encounter went down badly with Tory MPs who served in the military. The hat-trick was completed by a row over Sunak’s comments in Prime Minister’s Questions about transgender women in a session attended by the mother of the murdered trans teenager Brianna Ghey.

Yet while some MPs question how the Prime Minister will fare on the doorstep, he remains undaunted. From now until the general election, Sunak will spend most Mondays, Thursdays and Fridays on the road, meeting voters. The plan was agreed before Christmas, with the full-time return of election guru Isaac Levido in January marking a greater push to get Sunak out of Westminster. Across those three days, much government business will be conducted remotely.

While Sunak can bristle when questioned by journalists, such hostility is absent with the public

Both publicly and privately, Tory insiders insist they remain wedded to the 80:20 strategy. Under this plan, devised when the party’s polling was much higher, the Conservatives will defend 80 of their closest marginal seats, while also fighting to win a further 20 constituencies. Scotland, north London and close-run races like Zarah Sultana’s Labour Coventry South seat are thought to offer the most likely potential gains. It’s a strategy which forces Sunak to travel the country in his Range Rover, stocked with a ready supply of his favourite Haribo and other sweets. The pace is relentless: last month he visited Mansfield, Ashfield, Broxtowe, Buxton, High Peak, Hazel Grove, Cheadle and Altrincham all within 48 hours.

The purpose of Sunak’s travels is twofold. The first is the ‘snowball effect’ of him meeting hundreds of voters several times a week, in bustling marketplaces and high streets. ‘If 300 to 400 people meet him three times a week,’ says one leading Tory, ‘and they tell ten people in their social circle, that’s 10,000 every week.’ These events aim to show the PM as a ‘hard worker, nice, sociable’. ‘The more we do these events, the more people see his work ethic, resilience, energy and ideas first hand,’ says one aide. 

The second point of Sunak’s visits is for him to listen to voters and hone his responses to their concerns. As one minister says: ‘It’s to hear from voters, well, what exactly don’t they like about Keir Starmer? Why aren’t they voting Labour?’ This, combined with a relentless use of focus groups, is expected to sharpen up Sunak’s attacks on the opposition.

Encounters between politicians and voters can be fraught affairs. Although Sunak is unlikely to throw a punch, as John Prescott did (‘It would probably improve his ratings,’ remarks one Tory drily), it is impossible to predict voters’ questions, as when Diana Gould grilled Margaret Thatcher over the Belgrano and Gillian Duffy pressed Gordon Brown on immigration. But while Sunak can bristle when he’s questioned by journalists, such hostility is usually absent when it comes to exchanges with the public. At a GB News event on Monday, for example, Sunak reacted with sympathy to an attendee complaining about the Covid vaccine.

He also showed a willingness that night to improvise and abandon his natural caution. When questioned about Labour’s plans to put VAT on private school fees, he delivered a standard four-minute answer, reciting the Tory record on education since 2010. He then paused before defending his own family’s efforts to send him to Winchester: ‘I get attacked by Keir Starmer because of where I went to school,’ he told the audience. ‘I think that’s wrong, I don’t think it’s British.’ This was Sunak deviating from a set script and trusting his instincts.

Tory social media accounts duly shared the clip approvingly. Yet a similar rejoinder in one of the 2022 leadership debates failed to stop Liz Truss from beating Sunak in the membership vote. It was a bruising experience for many in Sunak’s team, who spent six weeks touring the country in a contest they knew they would lose. Sunak campaigned so hard then that he quite literally wore a hole in his shoe: the question is whether his current campaign efforts will also be in vain.

At least this time he can count on the assistance of a full cabinet team, who will deliver targeted messages in areas relevant to their respective briefs. ‘We’re not going to be talking about boats in Esher,’ remarks one senior Tory. Such visits are even more important, given the reluctance of some Conservative MPs to travel to help colleagues in marginals this time around. ‘When you’re 20 points behind in the polls, charity begins at home,’ says one backbencher. Steve Barclay, the Environment Secretary, is likely to spend time in key farming constituencies in the south-west to ward off the Lib Dem resurgence there. Lord Cameron will also be invaluable in both shouldering the burden of some of the Prime Minister’s foreign trips as well as campaigning.

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What role will Sunak’s other predecessors play, particularly Boris Johnson? Those familiar with discussions on the matter suggest that no approach has been made to Johnson, either formally or informally. Indeed, the sole contact between the two men in the past year is believed to have been a brief ‘Hello’ at the Cenotaph. ‘He’d be a great help on my patch,’ admits one Red Wall MP. Joint appearances between Sunak and Truss are not thought to be likely either.

The most significant contrast, however, is between the Prime Minister and the man who seeks to replace him. At PMQs, they have a weekly face-off, but Sunak’s aides believe the election campaign will expose the Labour leader. ‘We can’t wait to debate Starmer,’ says one with relish. The Tories point to Labour’s difficulties in the past week on green spending and anti–Semitism as proof that Starmer’s team will struggle in a protracted contest involving media pressure, relentless travel and encounters with voters. It’s something that gives Sunak heart each week as he sets out across the country./>