The fallout from the return of the Safety of Rwanda Bill has begun – before a single vote has been cast. Lee Anderson has handed in his resignation as deputy chairman of the Conservative party, alongside his fellow deputy Brendan Clarke-Smith. The two red wall MPs, who won their seats in the 2019 election, had signalled their intention last night to back amendments by Robert Jenrick and Bill Cash to toughen up the Bill. However, up until half an hour before the vote, the government had not made clear whether such an act would make their position untenable. Eventually this was confirmed and both decided to walk rather than be sacked. There was one more loss for the government tonight, with Kemi Badenoch’s PPS Jane Stevenson offering her resignation, after declaring that she would back the amendments.

So, where does this leave Rishi Sunak? When Sunak appointed Anderson as deputy chair it was intended to send a signal that he was serious about the red wall. At the time Greg Hands – the MP for Chelsea and Fulham – was chairman and Anderson provided balance. Now red wall MP Richard Holden is chairman this is technically less of an issue.

Anderson is not only a grassroots favourite, he is very popular within the parliamentary party

But Anderson is not only a grassroots favourite, he is very popular within the parliamentary party. He has also praised Nigel Farage and said Reform have tried to tempt him to defect. He therefore represents a key part of the Tory coalition. The fact that Monday’s Telegraph MRP poll predicted that were an election held now every red wall MP from 2019 would lose their seats has not helped matters. It means that some of these MPs see a personal incentive in backing the amendments so they can tell their constituents they are on side – even if the government is not.

For now, Sunak can find some relief in the language Anderson and Clarke-Smith have used in their joint resignation letter. They say their ‘support for the party and this government remains as strong as ever’ and commend Sunak’s ‘work on illegal migration so far’. It means Anderson is not going down swinging and there could be a way back for him yet when it comes to party roles. However, given that Tory rebels were warning No. 10 this afternoon not to sack Anderson as doing so would risk their wrath, there is a chance this act dials up the temperature ahead of the third reading vote on Wednesday night.

So far only a handful of Tory rebels backing the amendments have said they would vote down the Bill at third reading. But if this number grows to the twenties, Downing Street will start to get very nervous indeed.