Few Labour politicians have anything nice to say about Margaret Thatcher, so when Keir Starmer wrote an op-ed over the weekend praising her for bringing ‘meaningful change’ he was looking for a reaction. The left of the party obliged, calling her legacy destructive and chastising Starmer. Even some former Blairites stepped in to say the Labour leader had gone too far.

His comments were part of his ongoing pitch to win over former Tory voters who feel, as he puts it, ‘disillusioned, frustrated, angry, worried’. But for those who are trying to get a sense of Starmer and his plans for the country, his article is unlikely to have helped. Is the real Keir Starmer the one who praises Thatcher, or the one who described Jeremy Corbyn as a ‘friend’ and worked to put him into Downing Street? Is it the man who three years ago pledged to ‘defend free movement as we leave the EU’ or today’s leader, who described the last net migration figures as ‘shockingly high’? Or is he simply willing to say whatever is advantageous at any point?

‘If we win, we would have the worst set of circumstances a government has inherited’

The bookmakers say that Starmer has a 90 per cent chance of winning the next election. Everywhere he goes, he is treated as the next prime minister. From his appearance at COP28 in Abu Dhabi to this week’s diplomatic soiree at Buckingham Palace, people of power and influence lined up to greet him, while Tory ministers wandered around the same room unimpeded. Starmer’s succession seems certain. His agenda, less so.

The lack of clarity is creating a headache for No. 10. Its attempts to create dividing lines often end up with Labour giving the government their support or staying neutral. To avoid falling into Conservative traps, Starmer is inclined to hold a lot back until closer to the election. He said last week that Labour would scrap the 20 per cent discount on the salary for people looking for a visa for jobs on the ‘shortage occupation list’. This week, the Tories adopted this measure as part of their five-point plan to curb legal migration. ‘We’ve found that whenever we announce a policy they either steal it or spend months attacking it,’ says one Starmer aide. ‘There’s an incentive for keeping things under our hats.’

Yet with talk of an election as early as the spring (the logic in Tory circles being that the Conservatives would lose less badly than they would a year from now), Starmer’s team is having to think about what they might do, once in government, about the problems that seem to be overwhelming Rishi Sunak.

Starmer is expected to ask the Prime Minister for permission to start ‘access talks’ – conversations with the civil service about Labour’s plans for government – in the new year. All Labour party staff outside of Starmer’s private office have moved to a new office, Southworks, over the river from Whitehall. Duties have been split between Starmer’s top aide Morgan McSweeney, who will focus on the election campaign (‘it’s his obsession,’ says one aide), and Sue Gray, fresh from the civil service and partygate, who will head the preparations for government. ‘She basically ran Whitehall,’ says one colleague, ‘so she knows what she is doing.’ She will be helped by Helene Reardon-Bond, another former civil servant.

At shadow cabinet this week, McSweeney sobered up those attending by telling them that a May election would mean parliament would have to be dissolved by 20 March at the latest. That leaves ‘no time’, as one aide puts it, to formulate hard policy. Labour strategists hope Starmer will win two terms, meaning a Labour government for the rest of the decade – so big, time-consuming ideas such as House of Lords reform are being pencilled in for a potential second term rather than a first time priority. 

The most immediate challenge will be the economy. In Labour focus groups, aides report voters citing cost of living as their biggest issues – with concerns over whether they can afford to celebrate Christmas this year. Taxes are at a 75-year high, growth is diminishing and debt is spiralling. Jeremy Hunt’s last budget envisaged the need for £19 billion in spending cuts after the election, which not many Tories are worry-ing about, since few believe they’ll be the ones around to wield the axe. 

‘If we win, we are very aware that we would have the worst set of circumstances a government has inherited,’ says a Labour aide. A Labour government would try for a quick cash injection early on by scrapping non-dom status as well as the VAT exemption on private schools. Even if these measures were to bring in the hoped-for £3.2 billion and £1.7 billion respectively, neither would do much to slow the government machine, which now spends £1,150 billion a year. (Although both pledges are good campaigning points for Labour: Sunak went to Winchester College and his wife is a non-dom.)

While Starmer insists his party ‘always’ invests in public services, he has also refused to rule out cuts. In the upper echelons of his party, there is a view that an election pledge on departmental spending may not be the best use of any spare money. It means Labour may not, during its campaign, pledge to reverse the £19 billion of planned cuts. ‘Neither party is being honest on spending and tax,’ says a Tory MP. ‘But that’s Labour’s problem, if the polls are right.’

Starmer has also claimed he would not increase taxes on working people, given the current tax burden. He insists – in a style reminiscent of Liz Truss – that he will be able to grow the economy to pay for government spending. His hopes rest on planning reform. He would need to face down Labour rebels, but if he keeps his poll lead, he will have a majority big enough to do so.

The other part of Starmer’s plan is a Biden-style borrow-and-spend package aimed at supporting green jobs. But he has said he would only introduce this once national debt is growing at a slower rate than the economy. This isn’t forecast to happen until 2027, such is the dismal outlook for growth. The green policy, which is believed to be the brainchild of Ed Miliband, is caught in a conundrum: how legitimate is a growth plan which can’t be achieved until there is more growth?

Another proposed measure is the ‘new deal’ for working people, an echo of a Blair-era policy which Labour calls a pro-growth measure although in fact it amounts to more regulations for employers. Zero-hour contracts would be banned and more rules on holidays introduced. Another more controversial aspect is the ‘right to disconnect’, which would copy 2017 legislation in France aimed at combating an ‘always on’ work culture. Employers – even political parties – could be banned from sending emails or making calls outside of work hours. ‘Let’s see if it survives the business consultation,’ says a sceptical party insider.

 Edward Miliband and Keir Starmer during COP28, 1 December 2023 (Getty Images)

On health and education, Starmer’s aides are studying closely what Michael Gove achieved when he was education secretary in the coalition government. But Gove battled teachers’ unions for years. Would Starmer want to follow his example? Those who think he might point to Wes Streeting, the shadow health secretary. Streeting talks a good game on challenging the system and hasn’t been reluctant to clash with the British Medical Association. At last week’s Spectator Parliamentarian Awards he sent a video message from what he described as a ‘fact-finding trip’ to Australia and Singapore, two countries that use private healthcare provision and embrace insurance schemes while still offering universal access to healthcare. Streeting told any lefties watching not to fret as the NHS was not for sale – mainly, he joked, because no one would buy it.

‘Wes may be able to do what we can’t,’ says one Tory MP, ‘and have an honest conversation with the public about our healthcare system.’ But even if this Nixon-to-China logic holds, reform would take at least a year to draw up and several years to implement. If Starmer wants a better NHS by the end of his first term there will be no time to lose.

Whatever its ambitions for reform, it is not obvious what Labour could do to succeed where the Tories have failed. Starmer’s supporters point to the fact that Blair’s signature public service reform didn’t emerge till towards the end of his first term. Very little of the Blair agenda was known ahead of the 1997 general election: voters punished him with a landslide majority. 

Then again, in 2014 it seemed probable that Ed Miliband was heading to victory. Andrew Cooper, a Tory pollster, ran a ‘Populus predictor’ during the election campaign which assigned a 0.2 per cent chance to a Cameron majority. Just before polling day, this was upgraded to 0.5 per cent. British politics hasn’t been predictable for some time.

Morgan McSweeney reinforced this point when the shadow cabinet assembled on Tuesday. He showed graphs of six different elections from all over the world where one party was in front until the campaign began. Then the lead reversed. ‘The Tories only need a five- or ten-point swing to stop us,’ argues one sombre aide. ‘If you walk around parliament there is a feeling that it is done. But in Labour HQ, people act like the parties are neck and neck.’

The last Labour manifesto was 107 pages long. Starmer’s will be considerably lighter, with talk of a mission-led government and few if any expensive pledges. ‘It is likely to be a pretty lean muscular document,’ says one figure privy to the planning. ‘The preference is to be clear and concise rather than give a big shopping list.’ Shadow minister Jonathan Ashworth is in charge of efforts to make sure the party’s policies are ‘bulletproof’ from Tory attacks.

Before Labour’s 1997 landslide, Roy Jenkins famously described Tony Blair as being ‘like a man carrying a priceless Ming vase across a highly polished floor’. Some of Starmer’s team joke that the difference now is he is just standing with the vase, not even daring to walk. It has suited him, so far, to keep his plans vague. He has created the team for government, but not yet the policies. His bet is the public’s exasperation with the Tories means that he won’t have to. At this point, it seems like a safe bet.