Tax cuts are around the corner. That was the message from Rishi Sunak when he addressed hacks this morning in a speech on the economy. Ahead of Wednesday’s Autumn Statement, Sunak said that, after he achieved his target of halving inflation, his government is now able to enter ‘the next phase’ of its plan to grow the economy – and cut taxes.

Of course, how much of a role the government really played in bringing down inflation is debatable (it’s largely down to global factors outside of Sunak’s control). But the practical effect of meeting the target is that Sunak now feels able to begin reducing the tax burden.

After a torrid few weeks, Sunak is facing political pressure to please the right of his party and dent Labour’s poll lead.

In a sign that Sunak wants this to be part of a wider economic narrative, he insisted his government can only ‘turn our attention to cutting taxes’ now because of difficult decisions ministers had made on public sector pay restraint: ‘That’s why we can now move on to the next phase of our economic plan and turn our attention to cutting taxes. We will do so seriously, we will do so responsibly, but that time is now here.’

Hopes have been rising in the Tory party over the last week that Hunt will use the autumn statement to announce personal tax cuts as well as tax breaks for businesses. As I reported in this week’s cover piece, Hunt told colleagues he has more headroom than he expected. On Sunday, he went further by declaring that ‘everything is on the table’ when asked about the possibility of tax cuts on Wednesday.

While Sunak would not be drawn on specifics this morning, the comments are a marked change in tone to the messaging coming from Hunt and Sunak just a month ago. It’s not just inflation figures motivating Sunak: after a torrid few weeks, he is also facing political pressure to please the right of his party and dent Labour’s poll lead. The set piece events held so far have tended to have the opposite effect – with several reporting a fall in Tory support after reshuffle week.

So, which tax cuts could feature? Last week there was much talk that a cut to inheritance tax could feature. However, even the idea of it has led to kickback within the party.

While most Tory MPs believe inheritance tax ought to be reduced, there is a worry that doing so before the government cuts taxes for working people could backfire politically. It was also be seen alongside the appointment of David Cameron as Foreign Secretary as evidence that the party is focussing on the Blue Wall at the expense of parts of the 2019 election coalition.

It follows that the retail offer wanted by the majority of MPs is a cut to income tax or national insurance. Last year during the first leadership contest, Sunak pledged that income tax would fall to 16 per cent by the end of the decade. The IFS costed this at an additional £19 billion a year. It means Hunt could use the autumn statement to at least begin that journey. Given the Autumn Statement and Spring Budget are just a couple of months apart, many of the discussions so far have been about timing for these measures. At minimum, Sunak wants to show what the path to significant tax cuts looks like before the election.

The other takeaway from Sunak’s speech today is that he appears to have five new promises. As I previously reported, the plan in No. 10 has long been to achieve the five priorities and then make five more ambitious pledges. Sunak’s new five promises consist of: 1. Reducing debt, 2. Cutting tax, 3. Securing energy 4. Backing British business and 5. World class education.

Of course the slight problem with all this is that so far only one of the original five priorities has been achieved. Sunak is currently mulling how best to deliver on ‘stopping the boats’ now that the Supreme Court has declared the Rwanda scheme unlawful. New legislation is in the works. It is no coincidence that the five new promises are much less specific than Sunak’s original five priorities – which he will have trouble completing before polling day.