The first King’s Speech for more than 70 years was a festival of the expected: the royal reading of a No. 10 press release. Some dividing lines were drawn between the Tories and Labour and some loose ends tied up – but there was no real change in political direction. ‘It’s a continuance of the direction and path we are on,’ explained a senior government figure.

But if current polls are any indicator, to continue in the same direction means a landslide Labour victory and a Tory defeat of historic proportions at the next election. ‘It won’t spark rebellion but it certainly won’t lead to much excitement,’ was one MP’s quickfire assessment of the speech. ‘[Rishi Sunak] has slid back into management mode,’ sighs a member of the government.

Sunak wants to fight the general election with a focus on energy and crime. He tried to put Labour in a bind as to how to respond with the announcement of a justice bill pledging tougher sentences for the worst offenders, as well as legislation requiring annual rounds of oil and gas licensing in the North Sea. It means Labour would have to make a choice on revoking the old regime – rather than simply hoping the Tories renew the licences before they get in.

The Conservatives are also trying to make Labour squirm over the media bill, which is intended to protect press freedom. They’re keen to highlight the threat of state regulation of the media under Labour. Thangam Debbonaire, the shadow culture secretary, is on record saying she wished to ‘bring down the house of Murdoch’.

Other bills – such as legislation for an independent football regulator – were part of No. 10’s efforts to tick off as much of the 2019 manifesto as they can ahead of making a fresh set of pledges next year. The complaint privately from ministers and MPs is that, taken as a whole, there was little to bind the various measures into a political vision. What connects the proposed ban on smoking, announced at Tory conference, and the crackdown on pedicabs, which came this week? ‘As with the conference speech there wasn’t an overarching narrative,’ complains a senior Tory.

The speech also showed the political limitations Sunak faces – both in terms of his party and how much time he has. There were fewer bills announced than in any Queen’s Speech for almost a decade, while several controversial policies – such as the conversion therapy ban promised by Boris Johnson – were not included. But ministers may still try to bring it in before the election.

Another decision still to be made is whether to whether to fine charities which give tents to homeless people as part of the criminal justice bill. Discussions in government are ongoing but the point of the potential policy is to encourage rough sleepers to accept the accommodation offered to them.

However, Suella Braverman’s declaration that tent-dwellers are making a ‘lifestyle choice’ has sparked a Tory backlash which extends to cabinet. ‘As ever with Suella, she has a point but it’s not the one she has made,’ says a government figure. Braverman’s critics, who want her moved out of the great office of state ahead of the election, have renewed their efforts. ‘She is distracting from good stories we have to tell,’ says one such MP. ‘The most inspiring thing Rishi has done is not the King’s Speech but refusing to endorse her comments,’ adds a former minister.

With the King’s Speech unlikely to make a difference to the Tories’ current trajectory, pressure is building for Sunak to find a game-changer. The next real opportunity for this is the Autumn Statement, due later this month. MPs on the right of the party are clamouring for personal tax cuts, but while this is possible (with no final decisions to be made until the latest OBR forecasts are published) it’s more likely that any significant tax cut will be saved for next year’s Spring Budget. ‘We’ll build a package based on the headroom,’ says a government aide.

The current focus for the Autumn Statement is to boost business investment, fix the labour market and encourage public sector productivity. That means difficult decisions on uprating benefits and pensions. Concerns over inflation may be used to delay tax cuts until the new year. ‘This time there are two tests for tax cuts,’ explains a Treasury figure. ‘Whether we can afford it and whether there is an inflationary risk.’

Sunak’s supporters fear that an anodyne statement could lead to a backlash – adding to a sense that a series of set-piece events – including the Prime Minister’s conference speech and the King’s Speech – have been missed opportunities for more significant announcements. ‘I think the Autumn Statement will be a damp squib,’ says one member of the government.

The decision that is most important to Sunak’s fortunes is one that is out of his control. The Supreme Court is expected to return its verdict on whether the Rwanda scheme is lawful within a few weeks. If it agrees with the Court of Appeal ruling that the scheme is unlawful, the policy will be close to dead in its current form. The government could then appeal to the European Court of Human Rights – but the chances of a win there are slim. Should the appeal fail, Sunak will be facing a party that has lost hope in its own chances for victory at the next election.

If the Supreme Court does side with the government then deportations to Rwanda could come as soon as early February. Anyone booked on these flights would probably appeal to Strasbourg, so there may, in the words of one government insider, be ‘plenty of empty seats’. But the act of a flight carrying asylum seekers actually leaving Britain for Rwanda could change the political weather.

‘The Rwanda judgment is the totemic moment of the whole year’s big barometer of MP opinion,’ says a senior Tory. ‘It should also dictate the fate of Suella.’

The Prime Minister is running out of time. With the three big events this year unlikely to shift the polls in his favour, Sunak must face the fact that hoping for the best may soon become the only strategy he has left.