On Remembrance Sunday, former prime ministers are given ceremonial roles. When everyone assembled last weekend, it was a reminder of the recent mayhem within the Tory party. Labour’s 13-year era seemed neat by comparison: Tony Blair, then Gordon Brown. The Tories’ 13 years in power were represented by a more chaotic line-up: David Cameron, Theresa May, Boris Johnson, Liz Truss, Rishi Sunak. If Tory rebels have their way, they might even try to squeeze someone else in before time runs out.

‘I was the future, once,’ the now Lord Cameron said on his last day in office in July 2016. He did himself a disservice: he is the future once more, after being recalled to serve in Sunak’s government in a plot twist that no one saw coming. Labour MPs are delighted (as are a few Tories), and have started mocking his return for feeling like a tactic deployed by exhausted TV shows. ‘It’s series eight of Love Island and they need to boost the ratings,’ joked one Red Waller. Others welcomed the move. ‘I’m in shock. There’s finally a grown-up in the building,’ said one of his former ministers.

The Cameron comeback succeeded in its initial aim: it grabbed the spotlight from Suella Braverman, sacked as home secretary that same morning, following a rogue op-ed in the Times. ‘They pulled their rabbit out of the hat,’ notes a supporter of Braverman. ‘They wanted to win the day and they won.’ But politics is a long game. In No. 10, the reshuffle is seen as the beginning of a fightback that will stamp Sunak’s authority on his party as he leads a new united team focused on stopping the boats and improving the economy. Others feel he is risking a battle with a section of his party.

‘To some of our core voters, Cameron represents a time of stability and decency’

Despite their differing positions on Brexit, Sunak has found himself seeking Cameron’s counsel more than any of his other predecessors. The Prime Minister regards him as a good ‘sounding board’. Cameron was approached last week but the speed of the reshuffle was decided by the events surrounding Braverman’s actions. Those close to Sunak felt he needed to act quickly to assert his authority and move the agenda on. The inflation figures, which finally hit his target, and the Rwanda decision – which in the end did not go Sunak’s way – were seen as reasons to imagine why this might be a ‘reset’ week.

‘If you are 20 points behind you have to be willing to take risks,’ says a government aide. There was certainly a sense of glee – and surprise – in Downing Street that Cameron’s appointment didn’t leak before it was announced. Sunak’s team want to present him as someone now focused on serious governing. ‘Cabinet already feels more heavyweight,’ insists an attendee after this week’s meeting. Those who sat alongside Cameron say he was deferential to his new boss – insisting he had taken the job not because he needed something to do but because he believed in the Prime Minister.

Aides also hope Cameron’s appointment could send a signal to swing voters in Blue Wall Tory seats thought to be at risk of voting for the Liberal Democrats. ‘To some of our core voters he represents a time of stability and decency. Elections are won from the centre,’ says one MP. Allies of Johnson laugh at this, saying Cameron’s inability to win a majority in 2010 proves that voters reward Tories only when they have a clear agenda and radical purpose.

Sunak’s allies vigorously deny that Cameron’s exhumation shows any change in political positioning or strategy. ‘Events will soon prove we’re no less radical,’ says one. ‘Cameron is there to bring stability to the cabinet. We’ve tried having disruptors in and it doesn’t work. This is a time for professionals.’ It is also a time for a restoration of the Tory establishment: of the four great offices of state, three are held by boarding-school alumni who read PPE at Oxford.

Just over a month ago, Sunak stood up at Tory party conference and pitched himself as the change candidate – ready to upend a failed ‘30-year political status quo’. As if to prove it, he challenged two signature policies from his predecessors: HS2 (Cameron) and net zero (May). They were modified, not abandoned, but held up as Sunak defining himself against both his Labour and Tory predecessors. Indeed,disparaging talk of a ‘30-year status quo’ lumped them together. At the next election, he’ll be asking voters to trust him, rather than focusing on a fifth Tory term.

But drafting in Cameron sends another message: one of continuity with the recent Tory past and a belief that a ‘new’ way of doing things means hiring experienced people. After all, ennobling a former party leader and promoting him to cabinet on the same day is something that no prime minister has ever done before. ‘We are change-makers but now we are bringing back the Cameron era and trying to play the greatest hits. It doesn’t make any sense,’ complains a senior Tory. Even some in government are unconvinced by the framing. ‘It makes us look like we don’t have a coherent strategy and we’re just trying different things and seeing what sticks,’ says a government aide.

Cameron’s credentials on foreign policy, too, are a cause for concern. ‘It seems like someone had the bright idea: let’s appoint a foreign secretary who has nothing in common with current foreign policy,’ says a former cabinet minister. Cameron’s previous approach to China, Syria and Libya make him a questionable appointment, they add.

Others feel overlooked, and that Sunak has given up on his parliamentary party. ‘It says something that he couldn’t find a single MP, let alone a woman, who he thought was up to it,’ says a member of the government. ‘This isn’t about foreign policy. This is about Rishi shoring up his position by associating himself with a statesman,’ adds a former minister.

Sunak will need all the support he can get in the coming weeks, as he comes under attack from parts of his party. While his team describe him as the most right-wing prime minister in years, the return of Cameron and the treatment of Braverman, who was unceremoniously fired without the customary letter thanking her for her service, suggest to some MPs a break not just with the Brexit-backing right but the abandonment of any meaningful strategy for Red Wall voters.

Rishi Sunak with his new cabinet, 14 November 2023 (Getty Images)

In her own letter, Braverman suggested that she had even extracted terms for her endorsement of Sunak when he became Prime Minister: his agreement to reduce legal migration, deliver the Northern Ireland protocol and give non-statutory guidance to schools protecting biological sex. ‘She’s setting out her pitch to be leader of the opposition,’ says a parliamentary colleague. No. 10 is braced for more disclosures from Braverman. ‘The public are now getting a glimpse of what she was like to work with,’ says a government aide. One minister accuses her of trying to cover up her own failure. ‘She was the one in charge of immigration: what happened there? Her speciality was making noise, not making progress.’

The view from the Braverman side is that she stands for a cause that the party will rally behind, even if Sunak does not. ‘He is on a downward trajectory,’ says a supporter of Braverman. ‘No. 10 will be furious from now until the election. Suella believes in things and her positions are popular. Rishi blows with the wind.’

But Braverman may struggle to replicate a ‘Boris in the wilderness’ style campaign. His mayoralty had demonstrated his personal electoral appeal: hers is less certain. Ministers who appear as figureheads for a Tory tribe can struggle once they lose the status that comes with their title. Sunak’s base has calculated that Braverman will not get far, particularly when the party realises the absurdity of changing leaders yet again – and of attacking a leader so soon before a general election.

‘Her letter was gobbledygook,’ says a minister. ‘Even the Red Wall MPs think she has over-egged it.’ The Whips Office estimates that of 350 MPs about 25 were unhappy with her sacking: enough to cause them some trouble but not enough to deal Sunak a fatal blow. They are seen to be the same people who mourned Johnson’s departure (as Braverman did).

Sunak hopes events will prove that his strategy is on course and that Cameron’s appointment is about personnel, not politics. No. 10 is keen to present the drop in inflation as vindication of the PM’s strategy. While in reality it has little to do with government decision-making (inflation has halved in most developed countries), it means Sunak can say he has delivered on at least one of his five pledges and, given that this happened in October, he did so three months early.

A drop in inflation opens the way for potential tax cuts. While next year’s Budget is seen as the more likely place for big personal cuts, Jeremy Hunt has raised hopes by telling colleagues he has more headroom than he expected. In the Autumn Statement next week, there may be an opportunity to raise Tory spirits – or at least point to what may happen next year.

But Sunak’s bigger problem is stopping the boats. Braverman used her resignation letter to accuse the Prime Minister of failing to listen to her advice to prepare a ‘plan B’ if the government lost in the Supreme Court. Now this has happened – with the court declaring the scheme unlawful – and Sunak is under pressure to act. It is a policy area on which many Tory MPs believe their seats will be won or lost.

Should Sunak fail to get the Rwanda plan off the ground for legal reasons (as looks likely), many in his party will join Jonathan Sumption, a former Supreme Court judge, in saying that it’s time to consider pulling out of the European Court of Human Rights – to ‘take back control’ of laws. The ruling suggests this would not be a silver bullet but plenty of MPs still see it as a necessary step to taking back control – including Braverman and future candidates such as Nick Timothy, the former May aide. These MPs look at the appointment of the one-time chief Remainer Cameron to the Foreign Office and conclude that the chances of Sunak pledging to leave the ECHR have fallen (though colleagues of Cameron suggest he is ‘punchier’ on the ECHR than people realise).

With bookmakers putting the chances of a Labour government at 92 per cent, the Tories will already be thinking of a post-defeat leadership election. Kemi Badenoch remains the favourite but James Cleverly is close behind. The latest ConservativeHome poll of Tory activists puts him first for the first time. ‘James has not been blessed,’ argues an aide of his appointment this week as Home Secretary. ‘He’s been moved to a job where the right of the party will hate him for replacing Suella and the left will dislike him for enacting the boats policy.’ Such talk – seeing everything in terms of the next leadership election – is becoming common currency.

‘There is a battle for the soul of the Conservative party,’ says a member of the 2019 intake. ‘Between the conservatives and the liberals, essentially.’ Sunak intended to stabilise his ship but has set his party up for an ideological battle. It will begin before the next election and define what comes after.