Ukraine is on fire. Russian forces have launched an offensive across the entire front line in their final push before winter. About a hundred combat clashes took place yesterday, one of the most decisive of which is unfolding in Avdiivka. A suburb of occupied Donetsk, Avdiivka fell under the control of pro-Russian militants for three months back in 2014 before it was liberated. Now Avdiivka is under attack again, with Ukrainian soldiers trying to stop the largest offensive on the city since the onset of the war.

Avdiivka has been semi-encircled by Russian forces from the north, east and south for months, with little change on the ground. In the initial assault on Tuesday, approximately 2,000 Russian soldiers and up to a hundred armoured vehicles descended upon the city. Russian troops were aiming for a blitzkrieg: they live-streamed their assault, which they described as a ‘massive offensive’, and filmed their aircraft heading to bombard Avdiivka. Russian state media and their so-called military bloggers gave the impression that Russian forces were on the verge of entering the city.

Encircling Avdiivka is Russia’s best shot at gaining at least one small victory before the first snow

Ukrainian soldiers, fearful of a possible breakthrough, described the situation as ‘hell’ on social media. Others said they were outnumbered and several positions were lost. Andriy Yermak, head of Ukraine’s presidential office, claimed that Russian forces had used phosphorus bombs against Ukrainian fighters. The video of what looked like white phosphorus raining down on the city emerged on social media, but it is hard to verify.

What we do know is that Russian forces have captured about five square kilometres of territory and advanced southwest of Avdiivka near Sieverne and northwest of Avdiivka near Stepove and Krasnohorivka, where they encountered minefields, anti-tank defences and heavy artillery fire. From there, the infantry began advancing in small groups of 20 to 30 soldiers, simultaneously infiltrating from more than a dozen directions with air support. Vitaly Barabash, head of the Avdiivka military administration, described Russian troops as ‘cockroaches, trying to find a loophole in’. He added that Ukrainian military positions get hit at least 500-600 times a day, but his men ‘stand firmly’.

Four days of fighting have inflicted relatively heavy losses: the Russian forces have likely lost at least a battalion’s worth of armoured vehicles in offensive operations around Avdiivka, according to the Institute for the Study of War. Conservative estimates suggest Ukrainian forces have destroyed at least 36 Russian armoured vehicles, including tanks, armoured personnel carriers, and transport vehicles.

Avdiivka remains one of the most heavily fortified frontline areas in Donetsk Oblast. A successful encirclement of the city will likely require more forces than Russia is currently deploying. The Russian military command is seeking to draw attention to its ability to conduct combat operations, pin down Ukrainian forces and stop reserves from moving to key areas of the Ukrainian counteroffensive in the Zaporizhzhya region.

So far, the Avdiivka offensive showed that the real challenge for both armies is in trying to switch from defence to offence, which is especially tough in this tech-driven war. Encircling Avdiivka is Russia’s best shot at gaining at least one small victory before the first snow. But soldiers are struggling to break through the enemy line head-on.

Whether Russia does make progress or not, Avdiivka, once home to 32,000 people, lies in ruin. More than 1,600 residents remain in what is left of their homes – they are trapped, due to heavy shelling.