In the early hours of this morning, Vladimir Putin touched down in Beijing to attend the third forum of the Belt and Road initiative (BRI) at Xi Jinping’s invitation. The trip is clearly important to Putin: it is just the second time that he has left Russia, and the first time travelling beyond the former Soviet Union, since the international criminal court (ICC) issued a warrant for his arrest in March.

Xi invited Putin to attend the forum back in March in a show of unity when the former visited Moscow just days after the ICC issued its warrant. At the time, the visit – during which both leaders were at great pains to describe each other as ‘dear friend’ – was seen as a triumph for Putin in the face of the acute isolation imposed on him by the West in response to his invasion of Ukraine. With his visit to Beijing, this success is something he will be looking to build on.

Russia’s part in a ‘multipolar world’ relies heavily on China’s patronage, diplomatically and economically

Beijing has gone to great lengths to keep details of the BRI forum, held to mark the tenth anniversary of Xi’s global infrastructure development strategy, under wraps. However, Russian media has disclosed that Putin plans to meet with the leaders of Laos, Vietnam, Thailand and Mongolia today. He has already met with Hungary’s Victor Orban, during which Orban insisted ‘Hungary never wanted to confront Russia’ with regard to Ukraine. Tomorrow, he will meet Xi for a highly-anticipated bilateral discussion.

In an interview given to Chinese state media yesterday ahead of his trip, Putin gave hints as to what he wants to achieve in Beijing. He spoke of his confidence that China and Russia would hit the target of $200 billion per year in trade by early 2024 and mentioned a proposed ‘Power of Siberia 2’ gas pipeline flowing from Russian to China via Mongolia. Notably, the heads of the Russian energy giants Gazprom and Rosneft, Alexei Miller and Igor Sechin, have accompanied Putin to China. He also heaped praise on the Chinese president personally, saying ‘Xi Jinping calls me his friend, and I call him my friend’ and calling him a ‘true world leader’.

More broadly, Putin claimed that Russia has ‘joint projects’ that will be up for discussion at the forum – ‘it may be too early to talk about this, but I am sure that contracts will be signed,’ he said. With meetings lined up with Asian heads of state over the coming day or two, this will likely see Putin continue the charm offensive he launched with the African states at the St Petersburg-Africa and Brics summits in August. As a result of western sanctions, Russia lost significant revenue streams and influence; now Putin has his sights set on increasing his grip on the global south.

In this vein, Xi and Putin are also likely to discuss the conflict in Israel, after the Russian and Chinese foreign ministers called on a ceasefire over the weekend. Just yesterday, Putin conducted a telephone conversation with the presidents of Syria, Iran, Egypt and Palestine during which he again advocated for the resumption of the two-state solution.

The results of Putin’s bilateral with Xi, and how much the latter grants the former, will provide a good indication of China’s current global outlook. Over the past months, pushing the idea of a ‘multipolar world’, one less in hock to the influence of the US and the west, has become more frequent from Moscow and Beijing. In reality, Russia’s part in this ‘multipolar world’ relies heavily on China’s patronage, diplomatically and economically.

Just days before Putin invaded Ukraine in February 2022, Putin met Xi in Beijing where the two declared a ‘no-limits friendship’ with no ‘forbidden areas of cooperation’. Since Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, the dynamic between Moscow and Beijing has noticeably shifted. The Kremlin has felt the need to pivot towards China, both to plug the gaps in its economy left by western sanctions and to seek diplomatic support and legitimation for its actions in Ukraine.

China has attempted to put itself forward as a potential mediator between Moscow and Kyiv, and Beijing’s continuing indulgence of relations with the Kremlin indicate the degree to which it has been willing to take advantage of the conflict to its own benefit. China has few qualms buying up Russian oil, and has been more than happy to increase trade relations.

Both Putin and Xi will be hoping for a mutually productive meeting tomorrow. Putin may well come away thinking he has made gains, but the true benefactor, both in terms of influence and economy, will almost certainly be Xi.