Russia’s latest offensive has exacted a heavy toll on its forces. They have lost 127 tanks, 239 armoured personnel vehicles and 161 artillery systems in the past week, according to Kyiv, with the casualties reaching more than 3,000 military personnel. Vladimir Putin is trying to change the narrative, framing Russian forces’ actions as ‘active defence’ rather than ‘active combat operations’.

While Putin tries to temper expectations of major frontline gains, the battle for Avdiivka persists, albeit with waning intensity. ‘I hope that these dirtbags who settled in Avdiivka will be levelled with three-ton bombs in a similar way Israel is levelling Gaza right now’, said Sergey Mardan, a Russian state TV host.

Unlike the Wagner Group’s ‘meat assaults’ on Bakhmut, Russia’s efforts to encircle Avdiivka have shown more strategic planning. They deployed artillery, aviation, drones and at least three battalions that attempted to advance into several villages situated on the city’s flanks. Russian forces captured at least about five square kilometres of territory. This first wave suffered serious losses, while the next one is currently regrouping and trying to gain a foothold in the positions that they managed to capture.

Russian forces may escalate their attempts to encircle Avdiivka in the coming days, according to the Institute for the Study of War. Kyiv officials said that the Ukrainian army is holding steady and Russia’s breakthrough won’t happen. ‘We are preparing for another strong assault. We are preparing equipment and personnel to meet our enemy with dignity’, said Andriy Sergan, platoon commander of the 59th Separate Motorized Infantry Brigade.

If Moscow shows it can make progress despite the aid to Ukraine, it could weaken western support for Kyiv

The Kremlin’s objective seems to be securing a significant victory on the battlefield before winter, to hit back against Ukraine’s modest gains in the counteroffensive and the loss of Bakhmut. If Moscow shows it can make progress despite the aid to Ukraine, it could weaken western support for Kyiv. The anticipation of another fierce battle for Avdiivka pins down Ukrainian forces and stops reserves from moving to key areas of the Ukrainian counteroffensive in the Zaporizhzhya region.

Frontline victories are also crucial for Putin as Russia nears its presidential elections. While his opponents are largely technical, Putin still needs to demonstrate that he enjoys unwavering support from his country, especially in the wake of the huge losses in the war and the aftermath of Yevgeny Prigozhin’s mutiny. If by March next year, the Ukrainian counteroffensive leads to the liberation of territories, it will mean that Putin has brought nothing for his country in the one and a half years of full-scale war, except for tens of thousands of dead Russians.

For Ukraine, the loss of any settlement will be a tragedy: if Russians capture what is left of Avdiivka, the frontline will push deeper into the country, bringing even more destruction and death. For now, it looks like both armies can’t make any significant gains.