Why have the Tories lost both Mid Bedfordshire and Tamworth, seats they could normally rely on the laws of physics to be able to hold? According to Greg Hands, the party chair, the results are down to ‘legacy issues’ in the seats. They were vacated by Nadine Dorries leaving in disgust in a protracted fashion at not getting a peerage, and Chris Pincher being found to have groped two men in the Carlton Club.

Sunak and a few senior Conservatives do really think there remains a route back at the next general election

Hands also said this morning that he hasn’t seen much enthusiasm for Labour, despite polling expert John Curtice saying the opposition could now be on track for a bigger landslide than Tony Blair’s 1997 victory. His other explanation was that Tory voters largely stayed at home.

There isn’t much of a way to spin two safe seats crashing into opposition hands, which is why the Tory MPs I’ve spoken to this morning are pretty dejected. They point out that after 13 years in government, many of their seats are going to be subject to ‘legacy issues’, and that their voters might not come out in a general election either (though this is less likely than in a by-election where getting the vote out is always a struggle).

The response from Rishi Sunak will largely be to tell his party to hold its nerve because he is doing his best to sort out these legacy issues. He and a few other senior Conservatives do really think there remains a route back at the next general election, and that his work setting out a new vision is making that road a little wider. With the King’s Speech coming up, there are more chances to give voters a sense that this is a new government under Sunak. So far though, they don’t seem to be buying that.