Here we go. As Rishi Sunak prepares for next year’s election, the government has been on the hunt for dividing lines with Labour. One of the areas in focus is net zero. When the Tories narrowly held on in the Uxbridge by-election, Tory MPs largely put it down to the campaign against Ulez (ultra low emission zone). It led to a debate on how far to go when it comes to scaling back environmental commitments. Aides in No. 10 have been debating the issue all summer and now Sunak is close to a decision.

This evening, the BBC reports that Sunak is considering weakening some of the government’s key green commitments in a major policy shift. This could include delaying a ban on the sales of new petrol and diesel cars and phasing out gas boilers. I understand both measures are likely. The thinking is both the boiler delay and that of petrol and diesel cars could potentially be done without legislation.

Sunak has since put out a statement confirming his general intentions: ‘No leak will stop me beginning the process of telling the country how and why we need to change. As a first step, I’ll be giving a speech this week to set out an important long-term decision we need to make so our country becomes the place I know we all want it to be for our children.’

As I understand it, Sunak’s speech will emphasise that he wants to keep the headline 2050 net zero commitment and he will try to emphasise his green credentials. The argument will be that by making such changes, the majority will come with you. Whereas sticking with policies that hurt voters could endanger the whole agenda. However, Downing Street is braced for a row – the sense is that the so-called Westminster bubble could take against the proposals, but voters could be more sympathetic. Recent rows on the continent point to the political risk when it comes to environment policies misfiring. The question is whether Sunak’s own party will buy it.