It was not surprising that the recent New Zealand Defence Policy Review found that the nation’s military is ‘not in a fit state’ to meet contemporary challenges. What is surprising is that it has taken the Kiwis so long to acknowledge their shortcomings and propose a revised direction. Although written in reassuring language, like the recent Australian review, the document finally concedes that current defence capabilities are inadequate to meet the challenges in the region.

‘Over recent years, growing strategic competition has challenged the effectiveness’ of the system of ‘international law, norms and institutions’ that contribute to stability, according to the report. ‘Some states are increasingly seeking to advance competing visions for regional and global orders that are at odds with the international rules-based system. This competition is prompting major powers and regional states to adopt more proactive postures and invest in defence and other instruments of national power. We are experiencing the effect of this intensifying competition in New Zealand, in the Pacific, and the wider Indo-Pacific’.

Acknowledging that the country is facing a more challenging strategic environment than it has for decades, the review is the first real recognition that New Zealand cannot exist in splendid isolation from the rest of the world.

The review also admits that the regional challenge is being driven by an aggressive China. While noting the significant economic relationship, the review notes that ‘an increasingly powerful China is using all of its instruments of national power in ways that can pose challenges to existing international rules and norms. Beijing continues to invest heavily in growing and modernising its military, and is increasingly able to project military and paramilitary force beyond its immediate region, including across the wider Indo-Pacific.’ This could result in a persistent military presence in the region by a state that does not share New Zealand’s Pacific security interest and values, noted the review.

A number of recent events seem to have awakened the Kiwis from their slumber. First, China’s reach into the South Pacific, including the island nations within New Zealand’s backyard, such as Tonga and Samoa. Perhaps more alarming was the announcement by the Chinese regime that it was establishing a base in the Antarctica. ‘The Antarctic Treaty System is not immune to pressure from growing strategic competition, and some states see the region as a potential location for a range of military and security-related activities,’ a clear reference to the Chinese developments. The Global Times announced earlier this year that China planned to build a ground satellite station on Antarctica. Although the CCP rejected claims that it could be used for spying, Western nations remain convinced that it will have dual purposes, like most Chinese operations.

The release of an accompanying National Security Strategy proposes the means by which New Zealand will meet the challenges, including having a ‘combat-capable defence force’. Like Australia, the real test is the actual, timely delivery of the needed equipment and personnel. But at least it is a welcome departure from the security torpor that has prevailed under all governments for the past few decades. I know this from personal experience. As defence minister, I offered the Kiwis a favourable opportunity to obtain a very significant military asset but it was declined.

The CCP reaction to the Defence Review contained the usual allegations that it repeats US attitudes. Chen Hong, professor and director of the New Zealand Studies Centre at East China Normal University saw the security strategy as ‘echoing the US’ strategy towards China… its depiction of New Zealand’s relations with China is somewhat ambivalent and ambiguous, which betrays Wellington’s reluctance to choose sides between the US and China,’ Chen told the Global Times.

According to state-owned media, unnamed Chinese experts are ‘urging Wellington to keep a clear head and make judicious decisions when handling relations with China’ – a clear warning not to criticise the CCP regime about various issues including human rights violations. Cautioning that ‘the currently positive relationship between the two countries should not be risked for the sake of the US’ anti-China strategy’, they advised New Zealand ‘to remain vigilant for some hawkish politicians pushing for a tougher China stance, in particular against the backdrop of impending national parliamentary elections in October’.

New Zealand is highly reliant on Chinese trade.

‘China represents nearly a quarter of all our exports, was our second-largest source of tourists pre-Covid and is a significant source of international students, so it’s a critical part of our economic recovery,’ said NZ Prime Minister Chris Hipkins prior to his visit to Beijing.

His visit was lauded in China, with the Global Times offering effusive commentary. New Zealand’s supine attitude to the CCP has been driven by its significant trade dependency.

The CCP constantly reminds Kiwis of their reliance. New Zealand parliamentarians are the subject of a constant barrage of propaganda from the CCP. The CCP ambassador to New Zealand Wang Xiaolong regularly writes to the nation’s MPs, conveying the latest views of Mr Xi and the CCP. In his sixth letter this year, Wang reminded the parliamentarians of their dependence on China, noting that bilateral trade had exceeded NZ$40 billion for the first time, and observing the increased sales of Kiwi butter. He also pushed for the inclusion of China in the CPTPP.

China has sought to leverage New Zealand’s significant trade with it to suppress any unfavourable views of the Beijing regime and pressure Kiwi governments to toe its line. For a nation where consensus has become a governing principle, the readiness to bow to Beijing was on display again last week. Asked on NZTV if he would turn to China to fund a massive infrastructure project worth some $NZ 24 billion, the National party leader Christopher Luxon replied, ‘Yeah, absolutely.’ Mr Luxon, who is ahead in the polls for the October election added ‘New Zealand is a country the same size as Great Britain and Japan (yet) we have five million people in it. A strong and resilient roading network will be absolutely critical to our future.’ Presumably this CCP-funded road network will improve the transport of New Zealand product to China.

If New Zealanders needed any reminder of the threat to their national security, it was delivered by the Security Intelligence Service last week. The unclassified report on the nation’s threat environment identified the ‘growing aggression from the PRC’ and its role in significant foreign interference in New Zealand.