The trade secretary Kemi Badenoch will be in India this week for a meeting of G20 trade ministers. The Prime Minister Rishi Sunak will be visiting the country in September. With so many ministers on hand, it might seem the perfect moment to unveil the long-awaited UK-India trade deal. After all, the former PM Boris Johnson at one point promised to get it wrapped up before Diwali in the autumn of 2022, although as so often he over-promised and under-delivered. Even so, the dithering is getting more and more alarming. A trade deal with India is now the big prize of Brexit – and should be wrapped up without delay.

A trade deal with India is now the big prize of Brexit – and should be wrapped up without delay

Trade deals with Australia and New Zealand are all very well. But in reality, it will be a deal with India that will prove far more significant in the long run. There are three reasons for that. First, a deal with the United States now looks to be off the table for the foreseeable future, and that leaves India as the most significant partner. It has already overtaken the UK by total GDP (although that is not much of an achievement anymore) and it is expected to overtake Germany in 2027 and Japan in 2029 to become the third largest economy in the world.

Next, it will cement the UK’s critical pivot towards the Pacific that started when we signed up to the CPTPP that stretches across most of Asia and much of South America. Hardcore Europhiles may regret it, but the Asia-Pacific region is growing far more quickly, and is a far more lucrative market for the mix of legal, financial and consulting services that the UK has become very good at exporting. With India added as well, Britain will have the chance to embed itself deeply into the region’s commercial infrastructure. Finally, there are already well-established family and historic links between the two countries. Plenty of major British companies already have a major presence in India, and vice-versa, and with lower tariffs, easier movement of executives and staff and common trading links, that can only grow.

The trouble is, there are worrying signs that it is getting delayed. Officials have been briefing that there are still plenty of issues to be resolved, and the deadline is slipping and slipping.

The PM will be in India next month. He should use the opportunity to overcome whatever obstacles still remain, and get the deal ready to sign. It is by far the most significant prize of Brexit – and if it does get agreed it may well prove to be the greatest legacy of what will almost certainly be a relatively short stretch in No. 10.