Few can argue that the arrival of 100,000 illegal migrants to Britain from France by small boat since 2018 is nothing short of a catastrophe.

So what word would best describe the arrival in Italy by sea from North Africa of 100,000 illegal migrants already this year?

So Meloni’s main focus is not on dealing with the migrants once they are in Italy but on stopping them getting to Italy

That is well over double the number of migrant sea arrivals in Italy during the same period in 2022. It means this year’s total will almost certainly break the record set in 2016 of 181,436. This weekend alone more than 4,000 migrants arrived by boat on the tiny Italian island of Lampedusa half way between Tunisia and Italy.

The record number of illegal migrant sea arrivals in Italy this year would seem to prove that the country’s new conservative Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, like her British counterpart Rishi Sunak, has totally and utterly failed to honour her 2022 election campaign pledge to stop the boats.

But, in fact, the situation in Italy – thus Europe – would be far worse if she were not in charge.

She knows, as everyone knows, that once migrants set foot in your country it is virtually impossible to deport them anywhere, let alone to Rwanda.

So Meloni’s main focus is not on dealing with the migrants once they are in Italy but on stopping them getting to Italy.

Since coming to power last October she has devoted much of her energy to cajoling reluctant European Union leaders into agreeing that the migrant crisis is not just Italy’s but Europe’s problem and that the EU should pay – i.e. bribe – North Africa to stop migrants at the source.

Traditionally, Libya has been the preferred people smuggler departure point in the central Mediterranean, even though it is over 300 miles away from Sicily. However, this year for the first time there are more migrant departures from Tunisia which is far closer.

Tunisia verges on bankruptcy and collapse. The dreams that inspired its Arab Spring have disappeared into the Sahara. Its president, Kais Saied, who was elected in 2019 suspended democracy in 2021, and rules by decree.

It is to Tunisia in particular that Meloni has turned her attention.

In March, she warned EU leaders at a European Council summit that ‘if Tunisia collapses’ Italy – and thus Europe – risks the arrival by sea of ‘900,000 migrants from Tunisia.’

Italy’s secret services meanwhile warned of a further 685,000 migrants ready to cross to Italy from Libya which has been the traditional migrant departure point since ‘we’ deposed Colonel Gaddafi’s in 2011.

The Italians, though founder members of the EU, are traditionally mocked and derided by the smarmy French and Germans, despite Italy’s history as the beating heart of Europe.

But Meloni is steadily emerging as the most important leader in Europe.

This is above all due to the general move to the right across the Continent. But it is also because of the failure of either Emmanuel Macron or the German Chancellor Olaf Scholz to fill the vacuum left by Angela Merkel as de facto EU leader.

As a result, in July, the European Union signed a deal in Tunis with President Saied, orchestrated by Meloni after months of intense diplomatic activity. The EU promised to give €105 million to Tunisia to stop the boats. It also gave Tunisia €150 million in aid as the first tranche of a promised €1 billion aid and investment package. Both Meloni and EU Commission president Ursula von der Leyen were present.

This is similar to the deal the EU struck in 2016, after Merkel’s disastrous decision to open the floodgates to all and sundry in 2015, when it agreed to give Recep Erdogan €6 billion to stop boats crossing to Greece.

In the case of Turkey, many of those seeking to cross to Greece were genuine refugees from Syria and Afghanistan. In the case of Tunisia and Libya, many come from countries that are not war zones.

There are thought to be at least half a million illegal migrants in Italy at any one time. Many move on to countries in the north, such as Britain, where work and welfare are easier to get.

Last year, there were 105,129 migrant sea arrivals in Italy. The top three countries of origin were Egypt, Tunisia, and Bangladesh, where there are no wars, though Syria and Afghanistan came in at fourth and fifth. There were 77,195  asylum requests. Of requests decided in 2022 (which does not correspond to requests made), only 12 per cent were granted refugee status, though many more were granted leave to remain. But Italy only ever actually deports about 5,000 migrants a year. So it makes little difference.

This year’s migrant sea arrivals have already exceeded last year’s total and the top three countries of origin are not war zones: Guinea, Ivory Coast, and Tunisia.

But at least the deal with Tunisia is reducing the flow.

Thanks to the EU deal that Meloni masterminded, the Tunisian coastguard has stopped and returned to Tunisia this summer boats headed for Italy containing 40,000 migrants – compared with only 15,000 in the whole of 2022. On the night of 14-15 August alone they stopped 18 boats with 630 migrants on board.

If only the French coastguard did the same in the English Channel.

In Libya, meanwhile, since 2017 successive left-wing Italian governments paid for and equipped the Libyan coastguard to stop and return migrant boats to Libya, at a rate of around 30,000 migrants a year.

The Italian left and its global allies try to keep quiet about this initiative. But even the left, when push came to shove, realised that there was no alternative.

In February, Meloni renewed Italy’s payments to the Libyan coastguard for a further three years and supplied five more patrol vessels.

Meloni’s next move will be to convince her EU partners to establish hot spots in North Africa to process asylum applications. But she will not get very far until after next May’s Euro elections at which the right is expected to make massive gains and win majority control of the European Parliament for the first time in its history.

One thing is sure though: Meloni and Italy cannot defend Europe alone.

Get 10 issues for just $10

Subscribe to The Spectator Australia today for the next 10 magazine issues, plus full online access, for just $10.

SUBSCRIBE 10 issues for $10 REGISTER 3 articles a month

Already a subscriber? Log in