Nothing happens, and nothing happens, and then everything happens, the author Fay Weldon once declared.

This observation about life’s tendency to deliver sudden squalls between periods of apparent calm could certainly be applied to the leadership of the Conservative party.

It is only a year ago that Kemi Badenoch rather brilliantly used the leadership contest that followed the downfall of Boris Johnson to force her way into the top rank of Conservative politicians after having been overlooked during various Johnsonite Cabinet reshuffles.

Now her merits are widely acknowledged and she is firm favourite at the bookies to become the next leader of the party. Of course, nothing is happening on that front right now because Conservative MPs have sensibly concluded that the public would not take it well were they to launch into yet another leadership coup before the next general election.

So there are no crisis stories being written about Rishi Sunak’s Downing Street operation despite the Tories being much further behind in the polls than they ever were under Johnson and having failed to record an appreciable bounce-back from the dire days of Liz Truss.

But beneath this surface calm there is a lot of energetic paddling going on as senior figures in the party prepare for the next ‘everything’ phase that will ensue if the Tories suffer a heavy defeat in a general election in autumn next year.

There is a steeliness to her that makes underestimating her a perilous business

Before Parliament went into summer recess, Badenoch was on the receiving end of a rash of negative briefings which presumably emanated from the camps of rivals wishing to knock her off her perch. As Sunak himself found before being defeated by Truss 12 months ago, being seen as heir apparent is tantamount to having a target painted on your back.

At various end-of-term drinks parties Tory MPs and special advisers alike were to be found discussing who will be having a tilt at the leadership when Sunak falls. It was generally agreed that the contest is likely to be dominated by women, with only Foreign Secretary James Cleverly of the male contenders being given much chance. Whether he runs largely depends, I was told, on whether Mrs Cleverly is happy for him to do so.

The publicity garnered by Penny Mordaunt for her sword-handling skills at the Coronation and a series of strong despatch box performances point to her readying herself to stand again so long as she holds her Portsmouth North seat where she is defending a near-16,000 majority. Her substantial following among MPs and elements of the party grassroots mean she will be a serious contender once more.

None of these big three contenders can afford to do too much obvious manoeuvring for the leadership this side of a general election. To do so would risk them being seen to put their own interests above those of a party that cannot afford the voting public to pick up any signals that Sunak is being written off as a lame duck by his own senior colleagues. One can expect all three to exploit October’s party conference in Manchester to set out their stalls but to do so with subtlety to the extent that subtlety is compatible with Conservative leadership jockeying.

Hence, ‘nothing’ is seen to be happening. Yet this limitation does not apply to one other senior Cabinet minister, and it is this person who Sunak’s Downing Street operation will surely be regarding with most nervousness over the coming year.

Home Secretary Suella Braverman stood in last summer’s leadership contest and did somewhat less well than Badenoch. Her candidacy was initially met by cruel mockery among leftish metropolitan commentators. But she did not let that put her off. That she was one of the ‘Brexit Spartans’ back in the day should surprise nobody. There is a steeliness to her that makes underestimating her a perilous business. Currently she is rated a 16-1 outsider by betting markets. She can therefore be expected to take more risks than the others in projecting herself.

It just so happens that Braverman is in charge of the most emotive issue in the eyes of Tory-leaning voters – attempts by the Government to stem the flow of small boats carrying illegal migrants across the Channel and into mid-range hotels up and down the land. Sunak’s own prospects depend on him being seen to ‘strain every sinew’ to stop the boats.

Yet many suspect that leaving the European Convention on Human Rights and its supervisory court in Strasbourg is a step he is not prepared to take. Braverman supported just such a radical policy when she stood for the leadership in 2022. Were she to outflank the PM over the coming months by becoming an energetic public advocate for such a step – either inside his Cabinet or outside it – that would count as a major incident likely to trigger aftershocks. At last year’s Tory conference, she told a Spectator event: ‘My position personally is that ultimately we do need to leave the European Convention on Human Rights.’

Perhaps she will shortly update us on her thinking. Just remember: nothing happens, and nothing happens, and then everything happens.