Where do the by-election results leave Rishi Sunak and Keir Starmer? The Labour leader had been hoping for a victory parade but his party’s failure to secure Uxbridge – with the Tories clinging on by under 500 votes – has led to Labour unrest. Rather than tour the media studios with a single message that Labour are on the cusp of power following their decisive victory in Selby, both Starmer and his deputy Angela Rayner used broadcast interviews to take aim at Sadiq Khan. The pair cited Ulez – ultra low emission zones – as why they lost, and suggested it shows what happens when politicians don’t listen to voters, something of which Khan ought to take note. Ulez became a cost of living issue.

While there is an argument that the result will make it easier for Starmer and his shadow chancellor Rachel Reeves to further tone down the green message (the national policy forum is this weekend), others in the party are bemused by the comments on Friday – which served to highlight tensions between Starmer and the London mayor rather than aim fire at the Tories. Starmer has a strained relationship with several of the mayors, including Andy Burnham. Khan hopes that by the time he seeks re-election – next May – the issue will have calmed given the Ulez expansion is meant to be in place by end of summer. Away from London Labour, the result means that some Starmer allies see it as further reason to clip Ed Miliband’s wings – pointing to the risk of green backfiring if it looks costly.

Sunak is not immune to this criticism either. Given he had a very bad night bar Uxbridge, his MPs and Tory peers are already making the case for a stronger line on net zero, such as delaying several targets including on electric cars. A reset is also being talked up – with some MPs demanding a change in direction. As I say in this week’s magazine, No. 10 do not want to use the word reset for fear it looks like panic. But a change of pace is coming – though the five priorities will remain. Sunak’s plan is to keep calm and stick to his five priorities, rather than admit defeat and try again. ‘A reset rarely works,’ says one government aide.

Sunak will outline a fresh final-year mission at the Tory party conference in October. He will have a new cabinet, made up of MPs hungry to win the next election (with some surprising roles for the younger intakes). He will use the King’s Speech to set out further both what his government hopes to do before the next election and what it would do if the Tories somehow won a fifth term. His agenda is likely to include a move rightwards generally, as well as a focus on fraud and energy security (which the Tories believe is a clear dividing line with Labour).