Defeat in the Aston by-election in Melbourne this month was a bitter blow for the Liberals.

Victorian party leader, John Pesutto, said: ‘If we are to restore our standing … we have to demonstrate that we are committed to being an inclusive, welcoming and engaging party.’

He could have said that ‘to restore our standing, we have to demonstrate clear policy directions, something we have done badly in recent years’.

And added that ‘on energy policy, I am partly to blame, having failed at the November 2022 state election to differentiate the Liberals from Labor, the Teals, or the Greens’.

But he did not say these things, instead largely supporting current government energy policy.

This policy is based on the view that greenhouse-gas emissions are dangerous for the planet and have to be steadily reduced, notably by replacing coal with renewables for electricity generation.

While some Liberals agree with this policy, but many others do not, and are going along with it because anything else seems too risky politically.

But not offering an alternative is a political dead-end. And it overlooks several serious objections to current policy, objections that should be much more widely discussed.

Here is a proposal: that in preparing an alternative, the Liberals organise monthly forums around the country to discuss the pros and cons of current policy. Proposed timing: September 2023 to June 2024.

The pros would be in the hands of a so-called Blue Team and the cons in the hands of a so-called Red Team. Such teams are commonly used (e.g. in the military and cybersecurity) in guiding decision making.

As envisaged here, the forums would focus on climate science and renewable energy (meaning in practice wind and solar energy).

Climate science

Start with climate science and the underlying justification for current policy.

The Blue Team is likely to base its arguments on the latest reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). For example, in its latest assessment report on the science (2021), the IPCC states that:

• Humans are the dominant cause of global warming in the last 200 years, amounting to a little over 1°C.
• Such warming is happening at an unprecedented rate in recent human history.
• Warming will reach dangerous levels in the 21st century unless drastic action is taken to cut greenhouse-gas emissions.

In its Synthesis Report of March 2023, the IPCC states: ‘Limiting human-caused global warming requires Net Zero carbon-dioxide emissions … climate change is a threat to human well-being and planetary health … There is a rapidly closing window of opportunity to secure a liveable and sustainable future for all.’

(By ‘Net Zero’ they mean any remaining emissions will be offset, e.g. by tree planting or storage of emissions underground.)

What will the Red Team argue? Here are likely examples.

• ‘The climate system is way more complex than something you can simply tune with a carbon-dioxide control knob.’ (Judith Curry, prominent US climate scientist)
• ‘The science is insufficient to make useful projections about climate.’ (Steven Koonin, prominent US physicist, author of the 2021 book, Unsettled, and former senior official in the Obama administration)
• ‘Until mainstream climate-science opinion can be reconciled with observations of natural climate variability over the past few thousand years, climate science can be considered a work-in-progress.’ (Michael Asten, former Professor of Geophysics, Monash University and former senior principal geophysicist at BHP)
• ‘If governments, the United Nations or climate activists want to stop the normal planetary process of climate change, then they need to stop plate tectonics, stop variations in the Earth’s orbit and stop variations in solar output.’ (Ian Plimer, Emeritus Professor of Earth Sciences, University of Melbourne)

Why is there not ongoing public discussion of these issues in Australia? Renewable energy

On renewable energy, the Blue Team is likely to argue that phasing-out coal and natural gas is critical in reducing emissions and that wind and solar energy, backed by batteries, can take their place as a source of reliable, low-cost electricity.

In its Powering Australia plan, Labor says that ‘it will create jobs, cut power bills and reduce emissions by boosting renewable energy’. The government’s renewable-energy agency (ARENA) says that ‘cost-effective battery storage has the potential to significantly assist in operating a power grid with a higher share of renewable energy’.

The Red Team is likely to respond with several arguments.

First, the unreliability of wind and solar power will not be overcome by batteries.

Why? Because providing batteries to cater for wind and solar droughts – which may last for days – would be impossibly expensive. The likely cost of such batteries? Over one-third of total Federal government expenditure in 2022-23.

Second, reflecting the unreliability of wind and solar energy, governments in developed countries are returning to coal or natural gas.

This is strikingly evident in Europe (e.g. Germany, UK, and Italy), where coal-fired power plants are being re-opened or put on stand-by to cope with possible electricity shortages.

In Australia, the planned closure of the Eraring plant in New South Wales is almost certain to be delayed. South Australia boasts of its reliance on renewables, but fails to say that gas-fired and coal-fired electricity (the latter from Victoria) bails it out when the wind is not blowing or the sun shining.

In February this year, the Australian Energy Market Operator warned of the threat of electricity shortages over the next few years in the eastern states, particularly Victoria in the face of the planned closure of the Yallourn coal-fired power plant in 2028.

Third, wind and solar energy are proving, not only unreliable, but also expensive, with electricity prices in Australia having tripled since the year 2000.

We used to have among the lowest electricity prices in the world. We now have among the highest. Reasons for this include:

• The high transmission costs associated with wind and solar power.
• The need to backup such power with coal or gas plants operating at below capacity and with high unit costs.
• The costs required to maintain frequency stability in the grid.

‘Cheap renewables are very expensive’ (Chris Morris, Australian renewable energy transition, wattsupwiththat.com, 14 March 2023).

The Red Team is likely to assemble several other arguments, for example: 

• If the government is so concerned about emissions, why does it oppose the development in Australia of nuclear power, which is emissions free?
• Australia by itself can make no meaningful contribution to reducing global emissions (see the graph below).
• Expenditure on government subsidies to renewable energy in Australia is around $8 billion per year – expenditure that risks leading nowhere.

Why is there not ongoing public discussion of these issues?

A program for the Liberals

In holding forums on climate science and renewables, the Liberals need not initially (2023) take a public position on the issues involved.

Rather, they can argue that, before doing so, they want to hear more from specialists in the areas concerned and the public.

But as from mid-2024, they should take a public position, which can then become a key component of their platform leading up to the next Federal election (due no later than mid-2025).

Whatever the position they reach, they will be able to argue that they have done so after full consultation with the Australian public.

They can argue, too, that there are many people in the community unsure of their personal position on energy policy and open to receiving more information on the issues involved.

The Liberals have a wonderful opportunity to tap into these (among other) people.

Brian Wawn is a director of Energy Bureau, a non-profit organisation committed to stimulating discussion in Australia of climate and related energy issues.

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