As I write, six of 14 games of the world championship match between Ian Nepomniachtchi and Ding Liren have been played in Astana, Kazakhstan, with the score tied 3-3. By the time you read this, events will have moved on, so any prognosis would be futile. One ought, so to speak, to wait until the bread has risen. But the games in Astana have been so compelling that a quick peek is irresistible. Four out of six have been decisive – an extraordinary volume of bloodshed by the standards of recent world championships. Initially, Ding looked listless, as if overwhelmed by the occasion. ‘Nepo’ won game two, but by game four Ding had pulled himself together, when an elegant exchange sacrifice helped level the score.

Nepomniachtchi looks stronger since his defeat against Carlsen in Dubai. This time, he brushed off his setback in the next game. The first diagram shows a key moment from game five. Nepo’s active pieces confer a serious advantage, and his kingside breakthrough shows magnificent vision.

Ian Nepomniachtchi-Ding Liren
Fide World Championship (5), Astana 2023
(See left diagram)

37 g5! The threats of f5-f6 and g5-g6 make this pawn hard to ignore. hxg5 38 Rg4 Ra8 I suspect Ding chose this after eliminating the alternatives. 38…f6 meets with a stunning refutation: 39 Nh4! gxh4 (else Ng6+, Re4+ etc) 40 h6! gxh6 41 Qg8+ Ke7 42 Rg7# No better is 38…Qe7 39 Nxg5 Qb7 40 Qxb7 Rxb7 41 f6! gxf6 42 Nh7+ Ke7 43 Re4+ Kd8 44 Nxf6! and the h-pawn carries the day. 39 Nxg5 Ra1+ 40 Ke2 Qe7+ 41 Ne4 The attack is decisive. Qe8 42 Kf3 Qa8 43 Qxa8+ Rxa8 44 f6 g6 45 hxg6 fxg6 46 Rxg6 Ra2 47 Kg4 Rxb2 48 Rh6 Kf5, Rh8+ and Ng5 mate are looming, so Black resigns. But the pendulum swung back the next day.

Ding Liren-Ian Nepomniachtchi
Fide World Championship (6), Astana 2023

1 d4 Nf6 2 Nf3 d5 3 Bf4 c5 4 e3 Nc6 5 Nbd2 cxd4 6 exd4 Bf5 7 c3 e6 8 Bb5 Bd6 9 Bxd6 Qxd6 10 O-O O-O 11 Re1 h6 12 Ne5 Ne7 13 a4 a6 14 Bf1 Nd7 15 Nxd7 Qxd7 16 a5 Qc7 17 Qf3 Rfc8 18 Ra3 Bg6 19 Nb3 Nc6 20 Qg3 Qe7 21 h4 Re8 22 Nc5 e5 23 Rb3 Nxa5 24 Rxe5 Qf6 25 Ra3 Nc4 26 Bxc4 dxc4 27 h5 Bc2 28 Nxb7 Qb6 29 Nd6 Rxe5 30 Qxe5 Qxb2 31 Ra5 Kh7 32 Rc5 Qc1+ 33 Kh2 f6 34 Qg3 a5 35 Nxc4 a4 36 Ne3 Bb1 37 Rc7 Rg8 38 Nd5 Kh8 39 Ra7 a3 40 Ne7 Rf8 41 d5! The win is close, but 41 Nf5 Qg5! covers g7. Ding’s pawn advance serves a subtle but brilliant purpose. a2 42 Qc7 Threatening Ne7-g6+. Kh7 43 Ng6 Rg8 44 Qf7! (see right diagram) The big reveal. Thanks to the pawn on d5, White threatens 45 Qxg8+ Kxg8 46 Ra8+ followed by mate with Rf8 or Rh8. Mate also follows after 44…Bxg6 45 hxg6+ Kh8 46 Qxg8+! Black resigns