In the 14th Century, Spanish chemist Arnaldus de Villa Nova discovered that litmus, a compound derived from natural bacteria, would turn red in acidic substances, and blue in alkaline.

In American politics, the ‘litmus test’ is most particularly applied to incoming justices of the Supreme Court. Its genius lies in its simplicity: why bother with a complex suite of policy assessments, when a simple, binary proposition will do?

There is no question that in the approach to the midterms, America’s body politic is acidic. It merely remains to be seen how far the substance of that body is willing to turn red in reaction against evident systemic corrosion.

The political proposition America faces is more binary than ever. As President Biden said whilst campaigning last weekend, America reckons with a choice between ‘two very different visions for the country’.

Races in America’s largest states illustrate the stark nature of the contest.

Pennsylvania, America’s 5th largest state, finds itself in a peculiar quandary. Its Republican senatorial candidate, Dr. Mehmet Oz, is a celebrity doctor and Trump-endorsed ‘ring-in’ – a Turkish immigrant-cum-New Jersey elite, who couldn’t be less bootstraps-Pennsylvanian if he tried.

Pennsylvania faces severe issues of urban decline which ordinarily might seem an unsuitable battleground for a slick TV doctor. But Oz’s opponent is John Fetterman, the failed liberal small-town Mayor who once held an unarmed black man at gunpoint and had his father pay his bills until well into his 40s. Fetterman is also recovering from a debilitating stroke and is barely able to speak coherently or comprehend reporters’ questions. Juxtaposed against the charismatic Oz, he presents as a man tragically disabled and in desperate need of ongoing care.

Can longtime Democratic voters earnestly maintain support for clearly failing liberal policies, as represented by a severely compromised candidate desperately unfit for political life?

Pennsylvania’s litmus test is simple: vote for a man able to undertake Senatorial duties, or one who is not.

In Florida, America’s third biggest state, a vote for incumbent Governor Ron DeSantis reflects support for old and new conservative prerogatives: low taxes and low regulatory burdens, along with bans on childhood transgender surgeries and strict prohibition of classroom instruction on sexuality below the third grade.

DeSantis frames his arguments thus: vote red to protect children; vote Blue to exploit them. Voters are responding and polls show the Governor cruising to an easy victory.

DeSantis’ ongoing conservative fortification has had knock-on effects. His offering $5,000 bonuses to relocating law enforcement professionals has seen experienced NYPD officers fleeing a crumbling New York City for warmer climes and lesser crimes.

Crime in the Big Apple is rampant, and Republican gubernatorial candidate Lee Zeldin has had his campaign script all but written for him. Against a stumbling incumbent Kathy Hochul, Zeldin is quickly gaining ground in America’s 4th largest state and longtime liberal stronghold.

Kathy Hochul is no John Fetterman, but just as in Pennsylvania, New Yorkers face a binary choice: vote Democrat for a clearly unworkable status quo, or usher in Zeldin, the only candidate in the race who is remotely willing to tackle a bleedingly obvious urban decline.

Texas is America’s second largest state, and home to half of America’s 3,145 kilometre border with Mexico. Under the Biden Administration, that border remains wide open. Deadly Fentanyl continues to flood across it. Drug overdose deaths topped 100,000 in America for the first time in 2021, up 28.5 per cent on the year prior, according to the CDC.

Texans live daily with the overwhelming human traffic flowing across their Southern border. They love their culture of law and order, hate its latter-day debasement, and were further incensed when Joe Biden and Kamala Harris’ perpetuated false claims of cruelty against horseback border patrol agents in 2021.

Almost considered a ‘purple’ state in the lead-up to the 2020 election, Texas now shows no sign of remaining anything but blood red. This is hardly surprising. Since Biden took office, a staggering 4.8 million illegal migrants have crossed the Southern border.

Of the 38 US House seats in Texas up for grabs, Republicans should hold at least 24. They expect significant gains in Latin-American communities, who hold a particular contempt for the open-borders orthodoxy of contemporary Democratic politics.

The sheer scale of Biden’s border debacle poses a question less Red and Blue, and more Black and White for Texans: who stands for legal, orderly migration, and who prefers lawless human chaos?

Only California, America’s largest state, appears to show any substantial resistance to the coming ‘Red Wave’. But the Golden State now floats so far adrift of America’s political centre, most pundits disregard it completely when formulating a picture of American popular opinion.

In California, there is no risk to incumbent Governor Gavin Newsom. Instead, election day promises a down ballot vote on a suite of local left-liberal pet causes: Rent controls in Pasadena; Oakland’s proposed abolition of gendered language; Berkeley’s desire to enforce a punitive taxation regime on vacant houses.

Despite its eschewing of mainstream concerns, California’s political signaling is not without national significance. Also on its ballot is Proposition 1, which seeks to enshrine a state-constitutional right to unfettered abortion access in the wake of Roe v Wade’s overturning.

Though Prop 1 contains some mild qualifying language, in practice, its effect will be termination without limitation, all the way until birth. This fulfils California’s nationally-publicised desire to turn the Golden State into an ‘abortion sanctuary’.

Whilst most Americans support access to abortion, less than a quarter believe late-term terminations should be legal in all cases. If, as expected, Californians vote the measure in this November, they will further alienate themselves from mainstream American political sentiment.

This alienation belies the wider problem facing Joe Biden and his party: positions held as central to Democratic orthodoxy in 2022, are violently out of kilter with middle America’s moral, social, and financial mores.

Chastened by the lived experience of the Biden agenda, America stands poised to veer right on November 8. She has tasted the acidity of Democratic rule, and looks – like litmus – to be turning red.

Ben Crocker is a Ramsay Centre for Western Civilisation Scholar in Washington DC. His Substack is Crocker’s Columns. Twitter: @RealBenCrocker 

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