‘There are two things that are important in politics,’ said the 19th century senator Mark Hanna. ‘The first is money and I can’t remember what the second one is.’ The maxim remains true in 2022. Public polling is all well and good, and useful in its way. Yet in a country as sprawling and complex and bitterly divided as the United States of America, and with so much information available online at everyone’s fingertips, polls can easily be used to suggest whatever you want.

Political parties inevitably lie about their electoral prospects and hide their rather more sophisticated (and less biased) internal polling. But campaigns can’t altogether conceal their spending patterns. Which means that ‘following the money’ tends to be a far more reliable indicator of election trends, especially as races enter the final days and parties spend frantically in the places they are most concerned about losing or excited about winning. And spending ahead of tomorrow’s mid-terms suggests that the Democrats are in big trouble and the Republicans are very confident.

The Democrats have been throwing huge sums of money at races in states that have been strongly Democratic for years: Oregon, New York, California, Colorado, Washington, Connecticut – even, hilariously, Rhode Island. (For a British comparison, that’s a bit like Labour suddenly panicking about Islington.) The First Lady Jill Biden was sent to Providence, Rhode Island, last month, reportedly because it was thought that she would go down better than husband Joe.

Spending ahead of tomorrow’s mid-terms suggests that the Democrats are in big trouble

American political pundits love to talk about their parties playing ‘offence’ or ‘defence’ – are they defending states and districts they hold or targeting ones they don’t? The Democrats appear to have gone ultra-negative in 2022.

In the fight for Congress, Biden’s party has effectively written off almost every district or seat that Donald Trump won in 2020. Off the whopping $400 million dollars (£348 million) the Democrats have so far spent, some $100,000 (£87,000) has gone on seats with a Republican incumbent. This has freed up the Republicans, who have raised less money, to go on the offence – and spend far more in areas they want to take from their opponents.

In deep blue Oregon, of all places, Republicans could win half the state’s congressional seats. In California and New York, they are looking competitive in five House of Representatives seats which Biden and the Democrats carried with ease five years ago.

A Republican ‘red wave’ is by no means certain – all that heavy Democratic spending may stem or even reverse the tide. But what is evident and obvious is that the Democrats are desperately worried. They’ve put their money where their fears are.

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