Dying of heat

The former government chief scientific adviser Sir David King predicted that the heatwave in mid-July could cause up to 10,000 excess deaths. Was he right?

— The ONS says there were 2,227 excess deaths from 10 to 25 July: that is compared with the five-year average (which excludes the Covid year of 2020). This amounted to a 10.4% rise in excess deaths. The ONS recorded 3,271 excess deaths during the five ‘heat periods’ of the summer months (when the mean Central England Temperature exceeds 20˚C). There were nearly twice as many excess deaths among females (2,159) as among men (1,115), a reversal of previous heatwaves. There were 5,017 excess deaths among the over-seventies. Deaths among the under-seventies were 1,749 lower than the five-year average. Some caveats to these figures: excess deaths are a simple comparison with the five-year average and are not adjusted for a growing and ageing population. The ONS has been recording excess deaths for much of the year, before the hot weather.

Highly productive?

How has productivity changed over the past 60 years? Output figures in percentage terms relative to 2019:

      Per worker  |  Per hour

1960 36.6 | N/A

1970 48.7 | 46.1 (1971)

1980 59.0 | 55.1

1990 71.7 | 68.5

2000 86.3 | 85.0

2010 93.8 | 95.2

2019 100 | 100

Source: Office for National Statistics

Past slumps

By how much did house prices fall during previous slumps?

— Since 1952, according to the Nationwide index, there have been two sustained falls in house prices, where prices fell year-on-year by more than 2%. After peaking at £62,782 in the third quarter of 1989, the average house price fell to £50,128 in the first quarter of 1993, a fall of 20.2% in three and a half years. Average prices peaked at £184,131 in the third quarter of 2007 and then fell to £149,709 in the first quarter of 2009, a fall of 18.7% in 18 months.

A gift for Nicola

Some Christmas present suggestions for Nicola Sturgeon, from the internet:

‘Never Kissed a Tory’ T-shirt, £14.02

‘If you wanna be my lover you gotta hate tories’ sticker, 90p

‘Scousers hate Tories’ face mask, £5

‘Never kissed a Troy’ [sic] sticker, 90p