Ravenna, Italy

The victory of Giorgia Meloni in Italy with ahuge majority of seats in parliament has prompted the expected politicalindignation. It’s not just the international press, either. Yesterday, forinstance, my 17-year-old son Francesco Winston told me that at hisschool – we live near Ravenna in the Red Romagna, a hotbed of ex-communists –all his companions were in mourning. Why, I asked? ‘They say she’s going toabolish abortion,’ he explained. Why do they believe that? I asked. ‘They’rebadly informed,’ he replied. Bravo figlio mio, bravo!

Meloniwould not abort an unborn child herself – she told me when I interviewed her inRome last month – but nor would she impose her view on any other woman. She hasno plans to change Italy’s 1978 law which allows abortion on demand up to 13weeks. But she would like to give cash support to women forced to haveabortions for economic reasons. ‘I’d like a woman to be free not forced to havean abortion,’ she said. And she plans to increase child benefit by 50 per cent.

Yet heropponents – plus their many friends in the Italian and international media –repeatedly insist that herparty, the Brothers of Italy, has curtailed abortion in the Le Marche regionwhich it has governed since late 2020. And this, they say, is a key piece ofevidence that proves her to be far-right ergo fascist. But the obstacle toabortions in le Marche, as in Italy as a whole, is that a large majority ofgynaecologists in many parts of Italy refuse to conduct abortions asconscientious objectors – nationally it’s 64.6 per cent and in Le Marche it’s 70 per cent. The onlyrestriction that Le Marche has imposed, in common with one or two other regionswhere Brothers of Italy does not govern, is that the morning-after abortionpill can only be administered in hospitals.

But thathas not stopped the media inside and outside Italy repeating the false claim. Le Monde yesterday for example proclaimed in a headline that Meloni ‘promised to limit access to abortionduring her election campaign’.

Aquick trawl through the epithets used to describe Meloni and Brothers of Italyin today’s international media coverage – both right and left – illustrates theblack mood abroad in the citadels of power and influence of the West. Meloniand her party are called ‘post-fascist’, ‘far right’, ‘hard right’, or slightlymore accurately ‘arch conservative’ – never conservative which is how theyidentify.

Meloniis an unequivocal supporter of arms to Ukraine and sanctions on Russia – muchmore so than France’s Emanuel Macron or Germany’s Olaf Scholz. Yes, her twocoalition allies – Matteo Salvini of the Lega and Silvio Berlusconi of ForzaItalia – are flaky on the issue. But they were already flaky during theprevious government of Mario Draghi of which they (unlike Meloni) were part. When push came to shove, they invariably supported Draghi’s pro-arms andsanctions policy. Meloni has also made it a condition of joining a coalition with them that theycontinue to do so.

Herway of doing things will be like the Chinese: softly, softly catchy monkey – ina very non-confrontational, non-far right or fascistic way. She will try topersuade not bludgeon – to slowly build a consensus to get what she wants bothin Italy and in Brussels. She will, as she said after her victory, try togovern by unifying Italians.

Norcan she afford a showdown with Brussels in the short term. Yes, she is aeurosceptic who once called for Italy to leave the euro. And she believes theEU should do ‘less better’, and be a confederation of states, a Europe desPatries, not a federal superstate.

ButBrussels has allotted by far the largest share of its gigantic Covid RecoveryFund to Italy – €200 billion worth of loans and grants – to be paid in stagesand dependent on Italy meeting a series of conditions. That is a huge sum ofexistential importance to Italy and the first payments have only just startedarriving. Italy’s economy has been in more or less permanent recession since2011 and its public debt is now an astronomical 150 per cent of GDP.

SoMeloni will enter office as a financial prisoner of the EU. She cannot threatenEurope in the way so many analysts imagine. But nor would she want to from aposition of weakness – unless forced to by severe economic crisis or war. Expecther though to be a far less strident figure than today’s often-hystericalreaction suggests. That appears to be what the markets think, too, which areseemingly untroubled by all the doomsday media talk surrounding her election –quite unlike their reaction to Liz Truss taking over in Britain.