The news from Ukraine over the last few days has been treated as if the war were over, Ukraine had won and the Russians had surrendered and gone home to get on with the more serious business of bingeing on vodka and pickles.

Naturally, any news that is even slightly encouraging for Ukraine is good news and should be treated as such. The invasion was a terrible abuse of power, wrought havoc on the people of that country and almost destroyed it. So, even if only a few square kilometres have been taken back from the invaders, it should be celebrated. And I will join in the jubilation. I have made only one demonstration of protest at the invasion so far, when I walked out of a conference of arbitrators when the organisers insisted on my sitting on a panel with a Russian. Not on your Ivan, I said, and stalked out, putting on the best demonstration of high dudgeon I could do while on Zoom. I would like to do more, and the news that Ukraine has recovered some territory and put the fear of God into the Russians is certainly worth celebrating, especially the scenes of burnt-out tanks, abandoned artillery, unopened ammunition and dirty underwear littering the roadside.

But the danger is that the good news has probably been exaggerated, will not last, and may bring about even more terrible reprisals from the Russians. So, while we can celebrate, it would be foolish to pretend that the danger has passed, that Ukraine has won and that we have no need to do any more to help. The reality is the opposite of each of these tempting conclusions. Russia has not lost the war and Ukraine has not won, because Russia has far more troops on the ground than Ukraine, far more military resources and far greater power to enforce compulsory military service than its suffering neighbour and, a new worry, an increasing collection of hideous dictatorships on its side that will now start making real commitments in ammunition and probably troops. Russia is also a police state where so many people depend on the success of the regime that there will be no internal revolt against Putin and no popular uprising. Therefore, despite the loss of a series of towns and villages over the last week, and no doubt some lessening in the public and even official enthusiasm for the war, Russia still has a foothold over great swathes of countryside from which it will be next to impossible to expel it. On present indications, as much as we say the tide has turned and we are winning, that has not happened and it will not happen under present policies. Russia has not lost the war in Ukraine. But nor has Ukraine won it. The far more likely scenario is that the war will grind on for another ten years of unimaginable horror.

It is here that the real lessons to be learnt from the recent military gains can be seen. I have always thought that our support for Ukraine was half-hearted and I now think that not only is it still true, but it poses the biggest danger confronting Ukraine today. Western countries have been happy to claim they have been supplying arms and equipment to Ukraine and helping it defend itself. But that is all that it has been. Russia’s invasion has been inhumane and merciless, with the greatest casualties to be found in the civilian population who have simply been slaughtered. And yet, what have we in the West done about it? Nothing really, except offer some comforting words, make official visits with photo opportunities and supply some military hardware, none of which, apparently, is of the top notch needed to send the Russians packing, because it might upset them. No Western country has been prepared to send a single soldier or conduct a single airstrike for fear that it might annoy the Russians and provoke them to retaliate. And with the recent victories, the West will be even more tempted to compromise with Russia and force Ukraine to do the same.  I take a different view on what we should be doing.

The Russians must be taught a lesson in the only language they understand, which is force and, so far, they have not been taught that lesson. Indeed, they know, because we never stop telling them, that the West has no stomach for physical war on the ground or in the air, so they can basically do what they like and there will be a small, if any, price to pay.

The Americans say that if we go beyond sending equipment, Russia will be so upset and provoked that they will have a good excuse for undertaking a full-scale invasion. I say, let them do it. We will probably have to face that crisis one day, so it may as well be now. After the fall of the Soviet Union, we found that the military hardware of the USSR was so bad and their big guns so badly calibrated that they could not even shoot straight. As things stand today, it is clear they are hopelessly led, badly organised, running out of ammunition and even turning to North Korea for supplies! Now would be the ideal time for the inevitable show-down. American missile and air strikes against Russian positions, within Ukraine, using serious but conventional weapons, would be legal, effective and just the lesson the Russians have to learn.

Moreover, China must think by now that a criminal and autocratic state like Russia, if it is persistent enough and prepared to hold on long enough, can bludgeon a democracy like Taiwan into submission. They have to be taught that they are wrong. The other dictatorships shaping up behind Putin also need to learn the same lesson and they will not learn it from our pious speeches and delivering a few Bushmasters to Ukraine every now and again. They will learn it from force.