Anthony Albanese’s republican sympathies were a matter of public record when a Voice to Parliament wasn’t even a whisper in Linda Burney’s ear. But while the PM’s appointment of an Assistant Minister for the Republic during the week of the Queen’s Platinum Jubilee suggests his keenness to cut the Commonwealth cord is undiminished, his early commitment to a first-term Voice referendum, and reluctance to say much more about a republican one other than that it is inevitable, show he has priorities. He knows Australian referendums are always a touchline long shot, and with only eight of the 44 we’ve ever had succeeding, he’s keen not just to give the two groups pushing for these changes time to perfect their pitch, but also to make sure both proposals get the undivided voter attention they deserve. What he may have forgotten, though, is that of those eight referendum successes five were part of one-day package deals. And that on one of those days, Australians rubber-stamped no less than three changes to their Constitution. It’s worth remembering, too, what those changes concerned; the retirement age of judges, the filling of Senate vacancies and the suffrage of Territorians. I can’t imagine many Australians had a dog in all these fights, but if I’d just voted in favour of something I passionately believed in, I can imagine being generously disposed towards another proposal I didn’t care much about one way or the other. Fast forward 45 years, and there’s no doubt that giving one ethnic group special and constitutionally guaranteed influence in Canberra is a highly divisive issue. But I don’t believe that whether or not we should continue to put a picture of a Pom on our stamps and coins (remember stamps and coins?) is, for the vast majority of Australians, a hill to die on right now. I would also bet that the people most likely to vote ‘Yes’ to an Indigenous Voice to Parliament, irrespective of how much they’re looking forward to the next season of The Queen, would also be highly unlikely to vote ‘No’ to the question ‘Should Australia’s head of state be an Australian?’ if it was on the same ballot paper. So if I was managing the Albanese stable, I’d be thinking less about when to run which race than about how much Australians love a quinella.

And if I’d been watching how the rest of the world is betting I’d be getting a wriggle on. Thanks in no small part to the Ukrainian conflict, the rise of the Nationalist Right which began in Eastern Europe and the US Rust Belt ten years ago now looks less an aberration of deplorables than a measured response to the failure of left-of-centre government to deal effectively with everything from immigration to Covid to supply chains to energy. The most successful British politician of the modern era is not Margaret Thatcher or Tony Blair; it is Nigel Farage. And his greatest election victory came less than a year after the formation of his party. His current Italian counterpart is Giorgia Meloni, and the Fratelli d’Italia party she leads is less than ten years old. But she and they are the bookies’ favourite for next month’s general election. It’s less than three years until our next federal election. But that’s plenty of time for a new populist party to establish itself in Australia. I’m not at liberty to reveal the identity of this party’s leader, but I can reveal that its name will be the BOP, and that this will be in anticipation of the questions its candidates will be asked – and how they will respond:

‘Is it true that if you are elected you intend to privatise the ABC, cancel Australia’s participation in net zero, cancel Australia membership of the World Health Organisation, stop the closure of our coal and gas mines, accelerate the approval process for new coal and gas mines, approve the construction of nuclear power stations, remove all subsidies and tax exemptions for renewable power projects, ban the importing of Chinese solar panels, ban the acceptance of Chinese investment by all universities, make maths and English and history compulsory subjects in all schools up to year 12, ban the discussion and teaching of gender and sexuality in all classrooms, ban gender affirmation therapy and puberty blocking drugs to anyone under 18, extend traditional media freedom of speech laws to all social media platforms, demand that the US government drop all charges against Julian Assange, order the James Cook University to reinstate Peter Ridd, order the Melbourne Comedy Festival to reinstate Barry Humphries and (and I understand this is the one issue on which you and Mr Albanese agree) change the national anthem to Waltzing Matilda?’

‘Bloody Oath.’